Macquarie says moviegoing is 'recession-resistant,' eyes 7% growth for U.S. box office
Seeking Alpha News (Sat, 05-Apr 3:19 AM)
Following the CinemaCon movie convention, Macquarie forecasted a 7% growth for the U.S. box office at $9.2B on the back of a strong slate of movies, even though the Q1 performance was "lackluster." IMAX (NYSE:IMAX) and Cinemark (NYSE:CNK) are the top picks for the research firm.
In Q2, titles like A Minecraft Movie (NASDAQ:WBD), Lilo & Stitch (NYSE:DIS), How to Train Your Dragon (NASDAQ:CMCSA), and Karate Kid: Legends (NYSE:SONY) should bolster box office performance, and movies like Jurassic World (NASDAQ:CMCSA), Superman (NASDAQ:WBD), Avatar: Fire and Ash (NYSE:DIS), and Zootopia 2 (NYSE:DIS) would help drive growth during the year.
Macquarie believes the trend of more premium offerings is not going away soon and points to the recently announced deal between IMAX (NYSE:IMAX) and AMC (NYSE:AMC) to add twelve new IMAX locations and upgrade 68 IMAX locations.
"The deal cements AMC's commitment to IMAX premium experience and gives a vote of confidence in the upcoming movie slate, which is packed with blockbusters," Macquarie said in its research note dated April 3.
At the movie convention held in Las Vegas, they noted that there is a wider industry push from theater owners to keep venues clean, updated, and well-managed while investing in all aspects of the moviegoing experience.
Another key theme observed at CinemaCon was the serious discussions to lengthen the theatrical window in the U.S.
"In a nutshell, we think studios are beginning to see the long-term value from having longer theatrical windows and are also looking at it more from a global box office perspective, with increased global streaming piracy occurring when windows are shorter," the research firm said, while noting that the current windows in the U.S. are 30–35 days, while international windows are ~45 days.
Lastly, Macquarie is confident that moviegoers pace will not be affected by the recession and the sector will make it through an economic downturn "unscathed."
"Historically, the U.S. box office has been correlated more with product than with cycles. Moreover, as a form of entertainment, moviegoing is widely viewed as an economic trade-down for consumers. Put differently, some families in tough times will choose to stay home and seek more value-oriented experiences like cinema. This was the case during the Great Financial Crisis, which saw the U.S. box office actually increase in 2009 over 2007," the research firm added.