Oil flows from the United States to China in the early months of this year have reportedly added up to roughly 1% of the country's imports, amid growing tariffs and trade risks.

Oil shipments from the world’s biggest producer to the largest importer have been on the decline for much of 2025, after climbing in recent years, as President Donald Trump’s successive rounds of tariffs heap pressure on the domestic refining sector.

“With China imposing 84% tariffs on goods from the US, the cost of US crude would be almost double — $51 a barrel more expensive, based on $61 WTI,” Ivan Mathews, head of APAC analysis for Vortexa told Bloomberg. “This makes running US crude uneconomical for Chinese refiners.”

US crude imports to China will “likely dwindle to zero in the coming months if the current tariff levels stay,” he added.

Brent prices (CO1:COM) fell 2.6% to $63.78/bbl by 6 am ET, WTI (CL1:COM) down 2.8% to $60.64/bbl.

ETFs: (NYSEARCA:USO), (BNO), (UCO), (SCO), (USL), (DBO), (DRIP), (GUSH), (USOI), (UNG), (BOIL), (KOLD), (UNL), (FCG)

Meanwhile, in the base metals space, JPM Commodities Research still sees the global copper market deficit widening to ~3Mt by 2030E and, as such, remains bullish on the global copper miners long-term.

JPM sticks to its view, although macro uncertainty could continue to weigh on mining equities near-term, adding that new leaching technologies could add ~590ktpa (~2% of global supply) to the market by 2030E, but is likely insufficient to fill the long-term market deficit.

In EMEA, the Bank prefers Lundin Mining (LUN:CA) and Antofagasta (OTC:ANFGF) but stays 'Underweight' on Boliden (OTCPK:BDNNY). 

In the Americas, it recently upgraded Freeport and expects FCX (FCX) to deliver material volume growth from new leaching technologies near-term.

It also rates Teck Resources (TECK) Overweight, but Southern Copper (SCCO) Neutral. 

Among the global diversified miners, it prefers Rio Tinto (RIO) given its ~30% copper volume growth to 2028E.

ETFs: (CPER), (COPX), (OTC:JJCTF)