Crude oil futures eked out slim gains Monday, as the Trump administration's temporary relief from tariffs on electronic goods was offset by a 150K bbl/day cut in OPEC's demand growth outlook, underscoring the market's troubled outlook and high level of uncertainty.

Oil prices backed off during the day as equities trimmed some gains, BOK Financial's Dennis Kissler said, believing the oil market "lost its luster with the selloff in equities, and there's still a lot of demand concerns in the market because there are still a lot of what ifs and uneasiness over the tariffs."

Oil appears to have stabilized following Trump's tariff rollout, but at levels that underscore the market's bearish view on demand, according to John Coleman of Sparta Commodities.

"Trade war frictions continue to weigh on WTI, as retaliatory tariffs and likely more policy uncertainty to come force it to price far more competitively than usual," Coleman wrote, adding that WTI last week appeared to offer the best relative value globally, but the U.S. benchmark lost some of its competitive edge with a softening in North Sea prices and a near-collapse of Middle Eastern premium.

OPEC cut its global economic growth expectations, saying in its monthly oil market report that it now forecasts oil demand to grow by 1.3M bbl/day this year, below its previous outlook for 1.45M bbl/day, and lowered its forecasts for world economic growth this year and next, citing U.S. trade tariffs.

OPEC's oil demand view is still at the higher end of industry forecasts and it expects oil use will continnue to climb for years, unlike the International Energy Agency, which sees demand peaking this decade; its report is due out on Tuesday.

Front-month Nymex crude (CL1:COM) for May delivery closed up $0.03 to $61.53/bbl, and front-month June Brent crude (CO1:COM) ended +0.2% to $64.88/bbl, still the fifth lowest settlement value this year for both benchmarks.

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U.S. shale producers likely will further slow down their activity as oil prices seem set to remain below $65/bbl, according to UBS, noting the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Energy Survey indicates shale companies need a $65/bbl average to profitably drill a new well.

"Some indicators... suggest that the oil market remains tight, but tariffs together with the ongoing uncertainty over the U.S. administration's next steps are likely to weigh on economic growth," UBS strategist Giovanni Staunovo wrote, as the bank lowered its global oil demand growth forecast for this year by 400K bbl/day to 800K bbl/day, and now expects an oversupply of 400K bbl/day from 100K bbl/day previously.

Goldman Sachs now sees oil demand rising by only 300K bbl/day between the end of last year and the end of 2025, and cut its global demand growth forecasts for the end of 2026 by 900K bbl/day, with large surpluses of 800K bbl/day in 2025 and 1.4M bbl/day in 2026 continuing to exert downward pressure on oil prices.

The bank forecasts Brent and WTI oil prices to tilt lower, averaging $63/bbl and $59/bbl, respectively, for the rest of 2025, and $58/bbl and $55/bbl, respectively, in 2026.

J.P. Morgan also lowered its oil price forecasts for 2025 and 2026, citing higher production from OPEC+ and weaker demand; the bank now sees 2025 Brent price at $66/bbl compared to its previous outlook for $73/bbl and drops its 2026 target to $58/bbl from $61/bbl, while reducing its 2025 WTI price guidance to $62/bbl from $69/bbl and its 2026 view to $53/bbl from $57/bbl.