US Stocks Likely To Open Lower After 3-Day Fall: 'Equity Drawdown Probability Hasn't Peaked Yet,' Says Goldman Sachs Analyst
Benzinga (Mon, 31-Mar 5:29 AM)
U.S. stock futures fell on Monday after three consecutive days of decline on Friday. Futures of major benchmark indices were lower in premarket trading.
Stocks decline as investors await the day of incoming reciprocal tariffs on April 2nd. This is termed “Liberation Day” by U.S. President Donald Trump.
Goldman Sachs, in its recent note, predicted a 35% recession risk and reciprocal tariffs that average 15% across all U.S. trading partners, although product and country exclusions could whittle the addition to the average U.S. tariff rate down to 9 percentage points.
The stock market ended the month of March and the first quarter on a rough note. As of Friday, the Nasdaq 100 index was 13.24% from its previous high. The S&P 500 was 9.22% lower from its record level, and the Dow Jones was down 7.74% from its 52-week high.
With the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.63% and the 2-year at 3.88%, the CME Group's FedWatch tool shows markets pricing in an 82.1% likelihood of the Federal Reserve maintaining current interest rates through its May meeting.
| Futures | Change (+/-) |
| Nasdaq 100 | -1.24% |
| S&P 500 | -0.85% |
| Dow Jones | -0.57% |
| Russell 2000 | -1.08% |
The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:QQQ), which track the S&P 500 index and Nasdaq 100 index, respectively, dropped in premarket on Friday. The SPY was down 0.71% to $551.70, while the QQQ declined 1.16% to $463.49, according to Benzinga Pro data.
Cues From Last Session:
Most sectors on the S&P 500 ended Friday in the red, with consumer discretionary, communication services, and information technology stocks posting the steepest losses. In contrast, utilities outperformed, closing the session higher despite broader market weakness.
Adding to market jitters, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, rose 2.8% year-over-year in February, exceeding expectations of 2.7%.
Investor anxiety was further fueled by the University of Michigan Survey of Consumers, which revealed a jump in 5-year forward inflation expectations to 4.1%, marking the highest level since February 1993.
In corporate earnings, AAR Corp. (NYSE:AIR) shares plunged more than 16% after the company reported a third-quarter sales miss.
| Index | Performance (+/-) | Value |
| Nasdaq Composite | -2.70% | 17,322.99 |
| S&P 500 | -1.97% | 5,580.94 |
| Dow Jones | -1.69% | 41,583.90 |
| Russell 2000 | -2.05% | 2,023.27 |
Insights From Analysts:
As the date for “reciprocal tariffs” or "Liberation Day," as termed by President Trump, gets closer, Louis Navellier of Navellier & Associates says that there is a lot for investors to be excited about in April.
“Overall, despite ...
