Reaction Roundup: SA analysts weigh in on new Trump tariffs
Seeking Alpha News (Thu, 03-Apr 12:21 PM)
Below is a roundup of views expressed by Seeking Alpha analysts regarding the latest round of tariffs announced by the Trump administration.
Pearl Gray Equity and Research: The growing protectionist stance of President Trump will likely diminish short-term consumer sentiment, forming an unwelcoming scenario, especially consider that the U.S. economy is arguably in late cycle growth. However, we foresee solid risk-off opportunities, especially in intermediate-to-long term treasuries, selective investment grade corporate debt, CLOs and high-quality REITs.
Oakoff Investments: Trump's unexpected 10% baseline tariff on all imports shocked markets, leading to increased volatility and potential inflationary pressures, with inflation possibly rising to 5%....Given the heightened risks and market volatility, I'm downgrading the S&P 500 to "Hold", but recommend considering buying the dip if the index drops by 10% from current levels.
Ricardo Fernandez: The main beneficiaries of these tariffs may have already factored in higher margins, whereas, in my view, the digital economy is not immune and may face cross-border tax increases. The utility sector may be the best place to ride out the storm if not in a money market.
Geneva Investor: Trump aims to reclaim manufacturing jobs (11% of GDP) via tariffs, but this overlooks the dominant service sector (75%+ of GDP), where the US has a trade surplus (e.g., $109B with EU). This looks to me like the worst deal ever conceived by an administration. I rate Trump's economic policy so far a D-, not an F, based on the hope that it is only phase 1 of a broader strategy where the real objective is inducing a quick US recession and force a Fed pivot.
MTS Insights: White House officials have shared that patience for Commerce Secretary Lutnick (one of Trump’s main tariff champions) is already running thin as unpopular tariff policies roil the markets. Resistance to these economically painful policies is likely to bring about some moderation that will eventually calm markets. Watch out for these signals that could market a turn in sentiment for the better.
James Foord: Tariffs will no doubt have a detrimental effect on the economy, failing to re-ignite American manufacturing and possibly contributing to deflation and recession. But, this provides the perfect backdrop for the Fed to step in and ease, which may help prevent a much worse crisis, a refinancing debt crisis….Things look ugly now, understandably, but in the not-so-distant future, we could see a double tailwind for markets of reduced tariffs and more liquidity from the Fed. This is ultimately a time to buy the dip, with great bargains available for long-term investors.
Daniel Jones: These are certainly scary times in my opinion. Market conditions are incredibly uncertain, but my belief is that we should expect a meaningful decline in the economic welfare of the US. It is obviously possible that one side or the other will bend under pressure. But if that does not transpire, stagflation and a decline in the size of the economy would not be unthinkable.
ING Economic and Financial Analysis: We still think the radical change in global trade relationships in the first few months of Trump’s presidency argues for a strengthening of the dollar across the board, but if US data keeps deteriorating and the US is forced to water down its tariff threat, the dollar would weaken without any artificial intervention. In this environment - and given the risks of more equity losses and lower long-end US yields - the yen may well emerge as the most attractive currency in G10 in the near term.
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