Commodity Roundup: Industrial metals post broad gains in March amid tariffs, Brent recoups losses

Seeking Alpha News (Fri, 28-Mar 5:52 AM)

While price strength in commodities in general has largely been driven by the weakening of the U.S. dollar, idiosyncratic factors have also worked to boost individual sub-asset classes, BMI Research said on Friday.

Industrial and precious metals have outperformed all other commodity sub-asset classes in March, with optimism surrounding Mainland Chinese stimulus and concerns of supply disruptions amid trade tensions boosting industrials.

BMI anticipates significant volatility ahead as market players respond to the ongoing stream of trade-related developments. The Bloomberg Industrial Metals Prices sub-index is up 7% m-o-m as of March 25.

Tin and nickel prices also recorded notable gains, up 7% and 5.4% m-o-m respectively as of March 25, fuelled by a tighter market outlook alongside broader Trump-related shifts.

Geopolitical and trade uncertainties, at the same time, has pushed gold to fresh new highs, with the metal set for a large quarterly gain.

Spot gold (XAUUSD:CUR) was up +0.56% to $3,072.33 an ounce by 6 am ET.

ETFs: (NYSEARCA:GLD), (NYSEARCA:GDX), (GDXJ), (IAU), (NUGT), (PHYS), (GLDM), (AAAU), (SGOL), (RING), (BAR), (OUNZ), (SLV), (PSLV), (SIVR), (SIL), (SILJ)

The energy sub-complex has also rallied, pulled up by oil, which has been paring back on its year-to-date losses amid the ongoing increase in oil-related sanctions and tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump. In contrast to oil, natural gas has come under pressure this month.

BMI expects Brent crude to average $76/bbl in 2025, down from $80/bbl in 2024.

 

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ETFs: (NYSEARCA:USO), (BNO), (UCO), (SCO), (USL), (DBO), (DRIP), (GUSH), (USOI)

The agricultural sub-complex has meanwhile underperformed all commodity sub-asset classes in March, with coffee, the only softs commodity, posting gains this month, fuelled by production concerns in major producing markets.

Grains have also fallen, with expectations of increased plantings weighing on corn and improved conditions in the Black Sea region undercutting wheat, the brokerage said.

ETFs: (WEAT), (SOYB), (CORN), (DBA), (MOO)