Surge in gold imports continues to distort trade figures, analysts say
Seeking Alpha News (Fri, 28-Mar 5:25 PM)
Gold futures gained for the fourth consecutive week and the 12th in the past 13, as investors continued to seek the safe-haven asset to protect against the potential for a global trade war triggered by President Trump's latest tariffs as well as an uncertain economic outlook.
"The gold rally is not quite over yet," Commerzbank commodity analyst Barbara Lambrecht wrote. "We consider gold to be well supported for the time being, especially as next week’s potentially disappointing U.S. economic indicators could strengthen hopes of more interest rate cuts by the Fed."
Meanwhile, the latest U.S. data showed the PCE price index - the Federal Reserve's preferred gauge of inflation - rose 2.5% in the 12 months through February, still above the central bank's 2% target.
The PCE report and its indication of sticky inflation is "suggesting the Fed is likely to stay on hold beyond June as they assess the tariff inflation when and where it will pop up from," Peter Cardillo of Spartan Capital Securities said, adding that central banks also remain big buyers of gold inventories.
Markets are now bracing for Trump's plans for reciprocal tariffs, which he has saidhe will unveil on April 2.
Front-month Comex gold (XAUUSD:CUR) for April delivery ended +2.1% this week to $3,086.50/oz, another record high settlement after reaching an intraday peak of $3,124.40/oz, and front-month April silver (XAGUSD:CUR) closed +3.9% for the week at $34.644/oz; on Friday, gold gained 0.8% while silver slipped 0.7%.
ETFs: (NYSEARCA:GLD), (NYSEARCA:GDX), (GDXJ), (IAU), (NUGT), (PHYS), (GLDM), (AAAU), (SGOL), (RING), (BAR), (SLV), (PSLV), (SIVR), (SIL), (SILJ)
Surging gold imports appear to still weigh on the U.S. trade deficit, as imports of the metal related to financial trading lifted the goods trade deficit to the highest level ever in January; the good deficit declined ~5% in February, but analysts say gold still looks to be a major reason why the deficit is so high.
"A big share of the overall deterioration in recent months reflects a boom in imports of gold in particular," Pantheon Macro economists wrote. "This matters because most trade in gold is excluded from the national accounts, given that it mostly reflects the transfer of existing financial assets rather than current economic activity."