The US dollar is entering the end of its era
Seeking Alpha News (Wed, 09-Apr 11:41 AM)
Deutsche Bank sees the end of an era for the U.S. dollar (DXY).
“We are witnessing a simultaneous collapse in the price of all U.S. assets including equities (SP500), (DJI), (COMP:IND), the dollar versus alternative reserve FX and the bond market,” said George Saravelos, co-head of Foreign Exchange Research at Deutsche Bank. “We are entering unchartered territory in the global financial system.”
As the dollar plumbing dynamics are changing, he said “it is remarkable that international dollar funding markets and cross-currency basis remains well behaved.”
“In a typical crisis environment, the market would be hoarding dollar liquidity to secure funding for its underlying US asset base,” he said. “This dollar imbalance is what ultimately results in a triggering of the Fed swap lines.”
However, the market seems to “have lost faith” in U.S. assets, and instead of buying them, they are being sold, he added.
Deutsche Bank previously said President Donald Trump’s administration is “encouraging a trend towards de-dollarization to safeguard international investors from a weaponization of dollar liquidity.” This is now happening “at a faster pace than even we would have anticipated.”
In addition, Saravelos warned that a policy that has the goal of reducing bilateral trade imbalances is “functionally equivalent to lowering demand for U.S. assets as well.”
Japan is the largest official holder of U.S. treasuries. “An implicit negotiating objective of lowering JPY valuations entails the possibility of the sale of U.S. treasuries from the Japanese Ministry of finance,” he said.
Treasury ETFs: (TLT), (TLH), (IEF), (IEI), (SHY), (SGOV), (SCHO), (BIL)
U.S. Dollar ETFs: (UUP), (USDU), (UDN)
Japanese Yen/U.S. dollar: (JPY:USD), (USD:JPY)