April could deliver stock gains but dismal Q1 may foreshadow weak 2025
Seeking Alpha News (Tue, 01-Apr 1:42 PM)
The S&P 500 (SP500) just recorded a Q1 decline, a loss that history suggests may be followed by a slump in 2025.
The benchmark (SP500) fell 4.6% in Q1 2025, largely on growth worries as the Trump administration sought large-scale import tariffs while the Magnificent Seven mega-caps lost steam on AI spending concerns. The Q1 loss sat just outside the 15th largest since 1950, with the most recent in Q1 2022, when the benchmark (SP500) fell 4.9%, according to Carson Investment Research.
What’s “good news” is that April trade tends to log advances after Q1 losses, Carson’s Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick said in a Tuesday post on X (formerly Twitter). April since 1950 brought in just four S&P 500 (SP500) declines after Q1 losses.
However, the “bad news,” he said, is that Q1s ending in the red have been followed by rest-of-the-year declines seven times since the '50s. The steepest yearly fall was 31.7% in 2008, during the global financial crisis. Here’s Detrick’s table:

What's next after a weak Q1? (Carson Investment Research, FactSet)
Here were the 10 biggest Q1 2025 decliners on the S&P 500 (SP500), according to Capital IQ data. Seeking Alpha’s Quant Ratings follow. SA’s Quant Ratings are given on a scale from one to five, with any rating of 3.5 or above considered a bullish rating.
- Deckers Outdoor (NYSE:DECK) - Q1 loss: -44.95%. SA QR: 3.28
- ON Semiconductor (NASDAQ:ON) - Q1 loss: -35.07%. SA QR: 1.94
- Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) - Q1 loss: -34.74%. SA QR: 3.28
- Teradyne (NASDAQ:TER) - Q1 loss: -34.26%. SA QR: 1.37
- Western Digital (NASDAQ:WDC) - Q1 loss: -31.88%. SA QR: 2.64
- West Pharmaceutical (NYSE:WST) - Q1 loss: -31.65%. SA QR: 1.30
- Viatris (NASDAQ:VTRS) - Q1 loss: -30.28%. SA QR: 2.86
- Arista Networks (NYSE:ANET) - Q1 loss: -29.90%. SA QR: 3.24
- Delta Air Lines (DAL) - Q1 loss: -27.93%. SA QR: 3.04
- EPAM Systems (NYSE:EPAM) - Q1 loss: -27.79%. SA QR: 2.67
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