Lower reported sentiment and U.S. product boycotts are projected to lower U.S. GDP, according to Goldman Sachs’ research team.

Russia and China are the only two countries that have not reported a decline in global sentiment, and in turn have reported more favorable views of the U.S. since the start of 2025. Russia is up 12 percentage points in sentiment, according to a survey by Morning Consult, where respondents reported a “very favorable” or “somewhat favorable” view of the U.S. China is up 3 percentage points.

Denmark, Sweden and Canada reported the lowest change in sentiment, about -29%, -25%, and -23%, respectively.

Goldman Sachs economists, headed by chief economist Jan Hatzius and senior economist Joseph Briggs, said visits to the U.S., which accounts for 0.7% of U.S. GDP have come down, and are -11% year-over-year, vs. 5% growth for U.S. returnees through March 25, after recent tariff threats.

In addition, tourists from the European Union and from Canada spend about $50B annually, or about 0.2% of the U.S. GDP, on visits to the U.S.

Also, they estimate a 0.1% drag on U.S. GDP coming from a pullback in demand for U.S. foods, autos, and other consumer goods, as well as tourism.

Canadian resident return trips from the U.S. declined by 13% year-over-year by air and 23% year-over-year by automobile in February. This is a 20% decline in trips to the U.S. overall.

“A pullback in tourism demand would have the largest impact on GDP, with a 10% pullback, creating a 7 basis points drag on growth, while a 25% pullback would lead to an 18 basis points drag,” economists said. “A pullback in demand for other products would have smaller impacts, with a 10% pullback in demand for food and beverage, autos and other consumer goods each creating 2-3 basis points headwinds.”

When it comes to boycotts, most reports point to Canada, with 53%of consumers there claiming to have started some form of boycott to U.S. products.

“We expect a particularly large pullback in sales of American alcohol in Canada, since most of the provincial alcohol monopolies have removed U.S. products from their shelves,” Goldman economists said.

Sales of U.S. alcohol in Ontario were almost $1B in 2024. Accounting for sales in other provinces would imply a total $1.5B hit to U.S. exports of alcoholic beverages.

In addition, Canadian food retailers have reported a 10% uptick in sales and a corresponding decline in sales of U.S. products. “Reports also suggest a spending hit for other consumer goods, particularly for brands which are easily identifiable as American,” economists said.

According to data from Morning Consult, which measures the net favorability and purchase intentions for U.S. products by global consumers, consumers have “significantly downgraded their views on Tesla (TSLA), likely reflecting Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s support for President Trump and role as head of the U.S. Department of Government Efficiency.”

The net favorability of Tesla (TSLA) has declined by -31 percentage points in Canada – the most among countries – but has also declined in France, -27 percentage points; the UK, -24 percentage points; and Germany, -13 percentage points.