Losses are accelerating for crude oil futures Thursday, plunging more than 5% after President Trump unveiled sweeping new tariffs that will include a 10% baseline tariff on most imported goods and much higher duties on some nations, including a 34% tariff on China and 20% levy on the European Union.

Canada and Mexico, key suppliers of oil to U.S. refiners, were excluded from the reciprocal tariffs, and imports of oil, gas and refined products also were exempted, sparing energy markets from direct impact, but prices are sharply lower because of concerns about the broader impact to consumption and the demand for crude.

The announcement caught markets off guard, as speculation had suggested a flat 15%-20% tariff; the focus will shift to the global growth outlook, which likely will be revised downward due to the higher than expected tariffs.

Front-month Nymex crude (CL1:COM) for May delivery -5.8% to $67.54/bbl, and front-month June Brent crude (CO1:COM) -5.5% at $70.83/bbl, while front-month May natural gas (NG1:COM) +0.1% to $4.057/MMBtu.

ETFs: (XLE), (NYSEARCA:USO), (BNO), (UCO), (SCO), (USL), (DBO), (DRIP), (GUSH), (USOI), (UNG), (BOIL), (KOLD), (UNL), (FCG) 

Shares in major European oil companies are lower pre-market: BP (BP) -3.6%, Shell (SHEL) -1.9%, TotalEnergies (TTE) -1%, Eni (E) -0.5%.

UBS analysts cut their oil price forecasts by $3/bbl over 2025-26 to $72/bbl, citing weaker fundamentals.

"The tariffs were bigger than expected," UBS commodity analyst Giovanni Staunovo said. "The question now is how other nations will respond, including whether we will see stimulus measures."

Meanwhile, OPEC+ ministers are set to meet online later today; the group has started a process to raise oil production and are expected to bring ~138K bbl/day back into the market this month.

But it remains unclear whether OPEC+ will continue unwinding supply cuts beyond April, and some members who have exceeded quotas will need to implement compensation cuts.

Market participants are also weighing the potential impact of renewed U.S. pressure on Iran and Venezuela, which could tighten global supplies.