Stocks best positioned to manage through tariff risk: Morgan Stanley
Seeking Alpha News (Mon, 31-Mar 2:13 PM)
Uncertainty in markets is likely to persist even after the Trump administration outlines reciprocal tariffs this week, Morgan Stanley said in listing companies it sees as best positioned to navigate through levy risks.
Billing April 2 as “Liberation Day,” the administration plans to put into effect large-scale tariffs. However, "it's likely a stepping stone for further tariff negotiations as opposed to a clearing event,” Michael Wilson, chief U.S. equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, said in a research note Monday.
Morgan Stanley's public policy strategists expect to see a continued ramp-up in the levy rate on China, with scope for a further 10% increase, and product-specific tariffs on Europe. Mexico and Canada could see some de-escalation as temporarily exemptions were put in place for products under the region’s key trade agreement, while product-level tariffs on multiple Asia economies are possible, Morgan Stanley said.
Near-term upside for the S&P 500 (SP500) is likely capped at 5800-5900 “even in a less onerous April 2nd tariff outcome than our policy strategists' baseline,” Wilson said. Such a scenario would include no additional increase in the tariff-rate on China and very narrow tariffson other Asia economies.
Reshoring is the strategy that likely insulates companies bestfrom tariff risks, but that carries a "very high price tag and time lag", depending on the sector, Wilson said.
Here are stocks Morgan Stanley listed as having “favorable exposure” in facing tariff risk:
- Consumer Discretionary Ferrari (NYSE:RACE)McDonald's (NYSE:MCD) Domino's Pizza (NASDAQ:DPZ) Yum Brands (YUM) Restaurant Brands International (NYSE:QSR)Wingstop (NASDAQ:WING) SharkNinja (NYSE:SN) Hasbro (NASDAQ:HAS) Yeti Holdings (NYSE:YETI) Mattel (NASDAQ:MAT) Asbury Automotive (NYSE:ABG) AutoNation (NYSE:AN) Group 1 Automotive (NYSE:GPI) Lithia Motors (NYSE:LAD) Penske (NYSE:PAG) Sonic Automotive (NYSE:SAH) Bath & Body Works (NYSE:BBWI) Levi Strauss (LEVI) On Holding (NYSE:ONON)
- Consumer StaplesPerformance Food Group (NYSE:PFGC) Albertsons (NYSE:ACI) Kroger (NYSE:KR) Grocery Outlet (NASDAQ:GO)
- Industrials Rockwell Automation (NYSE:ROK) Knight-Swift Transportation (NYSE:KNX) TFI International (TFII) Schneider National (NYSE:SNDR) Werner Enterprises (WERN) Ryder (NYSE:R) ARCB ArcBest (NASDAQ:ARCB) Old Dominion Freight (ODFL) Kornit Digital (NASDAQ:KRNT) Westinghouse Air Brake (WAB) Fortive (NYSE:FTV)
- Materials Martin Marietta (NYSE:MLM) Vulcan (VMC) Nucor (NYSE:NUE) Steel Dynamics (STLD) Commercial Metals Co. (NYSE:CMC) U.S. Steel (NYSE:X) Cleveland-Cliffs (NYSE:CLF)
- Real Estate Prologis (NYSE:PLD) Lineage (NASDAQ:LINE)EastGroup Properties (NYSE:EGP)
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