Largest Positive Opening Gaps for ES

How does ES usually behave after a large gap-up move?

Using the 12 largest gap-up moves over the last 3 years in ES stock, the average move was +2.1% with the single largest opening gap of +2.9% occurring on 14-Nov-2023. Following the opening, ES tended to drift lower to the closing price 58% of the time for an average loss of -0.5%. The following day, ES stock price averaged +0.5% gains, with up moves more frequent than down moves. The stock was up 67% of the time in that period one day after these significant gaps. Earnings dates have been excluded from this analysis.

Catalysts

2 of ES's 12 largest moves corresponded with a large gap up in the overall market. 1 of the moves coincided with a company-issued press release.

Open-to-High and Open-to-Low

The largest percentage gain from the open to the high of the day was +8.0% on 19-Sep-2025, while the biggest drop from the open to the low was -5.0% on 8-Apr-2025. On average, the ES stock price gain from the opening price to the highest point of the day was +1.7%, and the average drop to the lowest point was -1.8%.

Day Drift Open-to-Close

The best performance in ES stock price from opening price to closing price (referred to as the "drift" for the day) was on 14-Nov-2023 for a +3.0% gain after the stock gapped up +2.9% at the open. The worst worst return from the opening price to the closing price was on 8-Apr-2025 when the stock lost -3.9% after the stock gapped up +1.6%. Overall in the 12 available observations, the stock drifted lower 58% of the time for an average loss of -0.5%.