ForecastEx LLC Launches Contracts on U.S. Election Outcomes

PRNewswire 3-Oct-2024 5:53 PM

CHICAGO, Oct. 3, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- ForecastEx LLC ("ForecastEx"), a CFTC registered Designated Contract Market ("DCM") and Derivative Clearing Organization ("DCO"), today announced the launch of Forecast Contracts on upcoming election results. These contracts allow customers of ForecastEx Members to trade their predictions on political outcomes, to either hedge against election related uncertainty, or profit from political insight. The election events available for pairing starting at 7:15 AM CT tomorrow October 4th, include the following:

• Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 presidential election?
• Will Donald Trump win the 2024 presidential election?
• Will the Democratic Party win a majority in the United States Senate during the 2024 general election?
• Will the Democratic Party win a majority in the United States House of Representatives during the 2024 general election?

These contracts offer investors an easy way to take a position on key political events. For example, if an investor believes the United States Senate will be under Democrat control in 2025, they can purchase a "yes" contract. Conversely, if they believe the event will not occur, they can buy a "no" contract. Contract prices range from $0.02 to $0.99, reflecting the market's evolving consensus on the likelihood of each outcome. E.g. $0.35 corresponds to 35% probability. When the event outcome has been determined, the holder of the contract associated with the correct outcome will receive $1.00.

The payment obligation for each Forecast Contract is fully secured by cash and 100% of the income earned from its investment is distributed monthly to Members as an Incentive Coupon in proportion to the daily closing value of their positions. ForecastEx expects some Members to rebate a portion of this Incentive Coupon to their customers.

Contracts for individual candidates in state elections are expected to be added shortly. A complete list of economic, climate and election based Forecast Contracts is available on the website.

About ForecastEx:
ForecastEx is a wholly owned subsidiary of Interactive Brokers Group, Inc (NASDAQ:IBKR), whose other subsidiaries include Interactive Brokers LLC (IB LLC) and IB Global Investments LLC (IBGI LLC). IB LLC, an FCM and broker, is a ForecastEx Member approved to offer Forecast Contracts to its customers as well as eligible customers of other non-U.S. broker affiliates on whose behalf it provides execution and clearing services. IBGI LLC, an Affiliated Customer of IB LLC, will operate as a liquidity provider, maintaining Bids on both the "Yes" and the "No" of various Event Markets. Pursuant to ForecastEx Rule 405(b), IBGI LLC bids are always filled last by ForecastEx if equal in price to another customer's bid.

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SOURCE ForecastEx LLC