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Big Earnings, Big Moves? Summit Therapeutics (SMMT) Drops Despite Clinical Progress
Summit Therapeutics (NASDAQ: SMMT) just unveiled its latest quarterly results—and if you only looked at the headlines about successful Phase III trials and a potential BLA filing in 2025, you might expect fireworks in the share price. Yet, despite these positives, SMMT shares have slipped 4% today, underscoring a long-running pattern of downside surprises on earnings days. What can investors glean from the stock's history around earnings—and does recent activity signal a possible rebound?
Expectations vs. Reality: The Options Market and SMMT's Latest Move
The options market had been bracing for a wild swing in SMMT, pricing in a potential move of ±23%—yet today's drop of -4.0% has underwhelmed, at least for volatility-hunters. SMMT also saw a spike in options activity, with volume surging to 4,520 contracts, hinting that traders anticipated a more dramatic outcome given Summit's flood of news on clinical progress and upcoming trial catalysts.
Looking Back: How SMMT Stock Has Moved Around Earnings
Summit’s historical record on earnings days tells a compelling story for anyone trying to predict what comes next. Over the past 12 quarters, SMMT has posted an average return of -4.7% on the day of earnings, with downside moves dominating (75% of the time) and up days making up only 25% of reports. On average, the initial open gap from the previous close is slightly negative (-0.9%), but more telling is the persistent negative drift through the trading day, closing at an average of -3.9% from the open.
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | -4.7% | -0.9% | +7.7% | -9.5% | -3.9% |
| % of Moves Up | 25.0% | 41.7% | 33.3% | ||
| % of Moves Down | 75.0% | 50.0% | 66.7% |
For more details and a deeper dive into the historical price performance on SMMT's earnings days, see the historical earnings movement page here.
How Big Are the Swings? The Numbers Behind SMMT’s Volatility
SMMT's price swings are no stranger to drama: while the average earnings-day move is about 12.0%, the record move was a jaw-dropping 26.2% in a single session. Even the quietest report still saw a move of 2.8%. This means traders in SMMT around earnings are often prepared for fireworks—even if the most recent move fell well short of the options market’s boldest expectations.
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Absolute Average Return | 12.0% | 3.1% | 7.7% | 9.5% | 11.4% |
| Max Absolute Return | 26.2% | 10.2% | 27.3% | 29.8% | 23.2% |
| Min Absolute Return | 2.8% | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 3.9% |
Does SMMT Bounce Back After Earnings?
For investors hoping for a rebound, history does offer some optimism: in the week after earnings, SMMT has averaged a +4.3% gain, moving higher 63.6% of the time. So while earnings day itself has often brought pain, the stock tends to stabilize or even rally after the initial shakeout.
| Stock Performance | 1 Day After Earnings | 2 Days After Earnings | 3 Days After Earnings | 1 Week After Earnings | 2 Weeks After Earnings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | -2.1% | -1.1% | +2.9% | +4.3% | +4.0% |
| % of Moves Up | 36.4% | 45.5% | 54.5% | 63.6% | 54.5% |
| % of Moves Down | 63.6% | 54.5% | 45.5% | 36.4% | 45.5% |
The Takeaway: What's Next for SMMT?
Summit Therapeutics continues to generate buzz with ambitious clinical trials and imminent regulatory milestones. But with today’s modest drop outpacing a much more volatile history, traders may be recalibrating expectations—or biding their time for the next clinical catalyst. For anyone looking to trade around SMMT earnings, the odds have historically favored sharp, downside surprises followed by a moderate recovery in the days ahead. If you want to dig even deeper into the specifics of SMMT’s earnings day volatility, visit the Summit Therapeutics historical earnings performance page.
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