Click to view the earnings moves in TMUS
TMUS Earnings: Will the Past Predict the Present?
T-Mobile US (TMUS) just dropped its latest earnings report, and the market has responded—with the stock at $223.62, down 2.1% today. Options markets were pricing in a ±4.6% move for the event, yet the initial price reaction came in lighter than expected. If you’re wondering what might come next, let’s break down how TMUS has historically behaved around earnings and what today’s numbers could mean for traders and investors alike.
How TMUS Typically Moves on Earnings Day
Looking at the past 12 quarters, T-Mobile’s stock reaction to earnings has been remarkably balanced. On average, the stock moves +0.5% on earnings day, splitting almost perfectly between up (50%) and down (50%) sessions. The initial open-gap move (from the previous close to the next opening price) averaged +0.3%, and the stock drifted an average of +0.2% from open to close. These statistics hint at muted volatility relative to the move options were pricing in this quarter. If you want the full historical details, check out the TMUS historical earnings move page.
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | +0.5% | +0.3% | +1.7% | -1.7% | +0.2% |
| % of Moves Up | 50.0% | 41.7% | 58.3% | ||
| % of Moves Down | 50.0% | 58.3% | 41.7% |
Source: Market Chameleon earnings statistics for TMUS. See details.
The Magnitude: How Wild Does It Really Get?
For those tracking risk, the average absolute earnings move has been about 3.4%. Even the wildest one-day swing maxed out at 11.2%, well within the kind of move options traders might be betting on.
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Absolute Average Return | 3.4% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.8% |
| Max Absolute Return | 11.2% | 7.6% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 4.5% |
| Min Absolute Return | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.9% |
What Happens After the Earnings Dust Settles?
If you’re betting on a follow-through move after earnings, TMUS has been a mixed bag. On average, the stock drifted down -0.9% over the two days after reporting, with gains occurring less than a third of the time during that period. However, two weeks after earnings, average returns bounce back to +1.7%—and the odds of a positive return rise to nearly 64%.
| Stock Performance | 1 Day After Earnings | 2 Days After Earnings | 3 Days After Earnings | 1 Week After Earnings | 2 Weeks After Earnings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | -0.4% | -0.9% | -0.8% | 0.0% | +1.7% |
| % of Moves Up | 45.5% | 27.3% | 45.5% | 45.5% | 63.6% |
| % of Moves Down | 54.5% | 72.7% | 54.5% | 54.5% | 36.4% |
Options Market: Betting on a Big Move?
Today's options market tells its own story. Volume spiked to 3,320 contracts—above average for TMUS. The most actively traded single-leg contract was the 24-Oct-25 225 P put. Let’s break down the details:
| Attribute | Value |
|---|---|
| Option Contract | 24-Oct-25 225 P |
| Volume | 269 |
| VWAP price | 3.79 |
| Open interest | 175 |
| Yesterday's closing price | 6.20 |
Why so much action in a deep-in-the-money put? This could signal profit taking, downside protection, or a directional bet in light of today's earnings reaction. Given that the price dropped only 2.1%—less than what the options market was bracing for—some traders may see value fading, while others might expect follow-through selling.
What’s Fueling TMUS Stock Action?
TMUS’s fundamentals remain strong. The company reported over a million postpaid phone net customer additions—its best Q3 in a decade. Financials looked robust, with total service revenues up 9% year-over-year, net income of $2.7 billion, and core adjusted EBITDA growth. Guidance for customer and financial growth has been raised, reflecting confidence in continued outperformance.
All told, it’s a story of consistent execution. Still, with historical earnings moves rarely exceeding 4% (except in outlier quarters), today’s options market anticipation looks aggressive compared to reality. The history is clear: while the occasional outsized move can occur, more often than not TMUS trades with measured reactions.
Takeaway for Traders & Investors
While the TMUS earnings event always brings extra eyes to the ticker, historical performance shows the stock typically responds with smaller, balanced moves—not the blowouts some option buyers hope for. The options market was prepared for a much bigger move, but so far, TMUS has played it close to its historical average. For those eyeing a post-earnings drift or positioning for the next wave, it pays to know that history often repeats in measured fashion with TMUS.
Curious about all the past earnings moves? Dive into TMUS's full earnings reaction history here.
Contact Information:
If you have feedback or concerns about the content, please feel free to reach out to us via email at support@marketchameleon.com.
About the Publisher - Marketchameleon.com:
Marketchameleon is a comprehensive financial research and analysis website specializing in stock and options markets. We leverage extensive data, models, and analytics to provide valuable insights into these markets. Our primary goal is to assist traders in identifying potential market developments and assessing potential risks and rewards.
NOTE: Stock and option trading involves risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Examples contained within this report are simulated and may have limitations. Average returns and occurrences are calculated from snapshots of market mid-point prices and were not actually executed, so they do not reflect actual trades, fees, or execution costs. This report is for informational purposes only, and is not intended to be a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Neither Market Chameleon nor any other party makes warranties regarding results from its usage. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Please consult a financial advisor before executing any trades. You can read more about option risks and characteristics at theocc.com.
The information is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. All stock price information is provided and transmitted as received from independent third-party data sources. The Information should only be used as a starting point for doing additional independent research in order to allow you to form your own opinion regarding investments and trading strategies. The Company does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the Information.
Disclosure: This article was generated with the assistance of AI