Click to view the earnings moves in WMT
Walmart Rockets 4.1% on Earnings: Can the Rally Last?
Walmart (WMT) just dropped its latest earnings bombshell—and Wall Street noticed. The stock shot up 4.1% in today’s session, landing at $104.78 after the retailer reported better-than-expected revenue growth and raised its outlook for FY26. But the options market, which was expecting a move of ±4.9%, seemed ready for volatility. Should traders bet on a further surge—or take this pop with a dose of skepticism?
Solid Results, Bullish Options Activity, and the Biggest Mover in Focus
The headline numbers from Walmart’s earnings paint an impressive picture: revenue up 5.8%, global eCommerce growth of 27%, and an improved profit outlook. No wonder today’s trading saw options volume hit 14,561—substantially higher than usual.
Interestingly, the most actively traded single-leg option was the 21-Nov-25 105 Call. Here’s a closer look at that contract:
| Option Contract | 21-Nov-25 105 C |
|---|---|
| Volume | 1,751 |
| VWAP price | 0.86 |
| Open interest | 14,596 |
| Yesterday's closing price | 0.79 |
What Does History Say About Walmart’s Earnings Moves?
While today’s action was clearly to the upside, Walmart’s historical behavior around earnings can be a reality check. Let’s break down the data on how WMT stock has typically moved both during and after earnings.
Average Returns on Earnings Day
On average, Walmart has managed a +0.9% move on earnings day over the last 12 quarters, with positive moves outnumbering the negatives two-to-one. The average gap up at the open is +1.0%, but the drift from open to close has been slightly negative (-0.1%), suggesting some tendency for rallies to fade as the day progresses. In fact, 50% of earnings days close higher than the open, and 50% close lower—a coin toss at best.
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | +0.9% | +1.0% | +1.4% | -1.6% | -0.1% |
| % of Moves Up | 66.7% | 66.7% | 50.0% | ||
| % of Moves Down | 33.3% | 33.3% | 50.0% |
Check the full historical earnings stock movement data for WMT here.
How Wild Does It Get? Measuring the Magnitude
Not every earnings session is a barn burner. Here’s how the size of the moves break down (regardless of direction):
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Absolute Average Return | 3.5% | 3.6% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.3% |
| Max Absolute Return | 8.1% | 7.8% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 3.3% |
| Min Absolute Return | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
Post-Earnings Drift: Often Lower Before Recovery
If you’re tempted to chase today’s rally, history urges caution. Walmart shares, on average, drop -0.6% the day after earnings and see negative performance across the following days, only flipping to a positive average at the two-week mark (+0.8%). Less than half of post-earnings days have been positive, so the afterglow tends to be short-lived for WMT.
| Stock Performance | 1 Day After Earnings | 2 Days After Earnings | 3 Days After Earnings | 1 Week After Earnings | 2 Weeks After Earnings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | -0.6% | -1.0% | -0.6% | -0.5% | +0.8% |
| % of Moves Up | 45.5% | 45.5% | 45.5% | 45.5% | 63.6% |
| % of Moves Down | 54.5% | 54.5% | 54.5% | 54.5% | 36.4% |
Takeaway: Celebrate, But Watch for Reversion
Walmart’s latest earnings have ignited optimism, reflected in both the stock jump and the rush of options trading. But with history as our guide, caution is warranted—the post-earnings drift has been negative more often than not, and sustained rallies are the exception. If you’re tracking WMT, don’t just focus on today’s numbers. Keep a close eye on how the next few sessions unfold, especially with option activity running hot. You can always explore more detailed data and stats on Walmart’s historical stock reactions around earnings here.
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