SHOP Earnings: How Has Shopify Historically Performed After Reporting? Key Data and Trends Revealed
Click to view the earnings moves in SHOP
Shopify (SHOP) is back in the spotlight after announcing quarterly results that topped analyst expectations, showcasing robust 32% revenue growth and continued profitability. But what really happens to the stock price around these earnings events? Is history on the side of the bulls—or is volatility the name of the game?
Strong Results, Volatile Reaction
Today's earnings were a clear win on paper: revenue jumped 32%, gross profit was up, and free cash flow margin held a strong 18%. CEO Harley Finkelstein underscored Shopify's relentless growth, calling Q3 a "standout quarter" in terms of both revenue and profitability.
Despite the impressive financials and brand wins, Shopify's shares are down -3.4% (recent price: $166.73) as of the latest print—proving that market expectations can sometimes overshadow stellar execution. Notably, options traders had braced for a big swing, pricing in a potential ±11.7% move. That's not far-fetched: at the previous earnings, SHOP shares rocketed 22.0%.
Historical Stock Moves: Is SHOP Predictable Around Earnings?
If you’re searching for patterns in Shopify's post-earnings behavior, the data shows a clear trend—historical earnings days are a high-stakes event for SHOP stock. Here’s how it usually plays out, based on the past 12 quarters:
- Average move on earnings day: +4.4%
- Positive and negative outcomes are a coin toss: 50.0% up vs. 50.0% down
- The opening price typically gaps up +2.7%
- The move from open to close averages another +1.4%, with gains happening 58.3% of the time
- To the upside, highs average +5.2%; on the downside, lows reach -2.4%
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | +4.4% | +2.7% | +5.2% | -2.4% | +1.4% |
| % of Moves Up | 50.0% | 50.0% | 58.3% | ||
| % of Moves Down | 50.0% | 50.0% | 41.7% |
Just How Big Are These Earnings Moves?
The magnitude of Shopify's earnings swings is just as interesting. Absolute average moves can top 14.0% on the day—a far cry from a sleepy blue-chip stock. Here’s a snapshot:
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Absolute Average Return | 14.0% | 12.1% | 5.2% | 2.4% | 2.9% |
| Max Absolute Return | 23.8% | 19.0% | 9.8% | 6.0% | 6.7% |
| Min Absolute Return | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 0.0% | 0.4% |
What Happens After Earnings? Momentum Tends to Persist
Investors often wonder if the earnings day move sets the tone for the days and weeks that follow. Looking at the average returns after earnings, SHOP typically sees further positive drift, particularly two days out:
| Stock Performance | 1 Day After Earnings | 2 Days After Earnings | 3 Days After Earnings | 1 Week After Earnings | 2 Weeks After Earnings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | +1.5% | +2.3% | +2.1% | +2.1% | +0.4% |
| % of Moves Up | 45.5% | 63.6% | 54.5% | 54.5% | 45.5% |
| % of Moves Down | 54.5% | 36.4% | 45.5% | 45.5% | 54.5% |
Bottom line? The numbers confirm Shopify's reputation for fireworks around earnings: average moves are sizable, and the volatility doesn't just vanish after results drop. On average, shares trend higher in the first few days—most notably with a +2.3% average return two days out, happening nearly two-thirds of the time.
Want More Historical Data?
Curious about all the historical moves, volatility stats, or deeper breakdowns by quarter? Dive into the full archive and detailed historical performance data for Shopify around earnings here: Shopify Earnings Historical Stock Performance.
As always, remember: history is a guide, not a guarantee. SHOP’s high-stakes earnings moments continue to attract traders seeking volatility—and reward those who study the data with a sharper edge. Will the next quarter keep the pattern alive?
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