Click to view the earnings moves in CIEN
Is Ciena’s 10.9% Earnings Jump Justified? Here’s What History and the Options Market Say
Shares of Ciena (CIEN) surged 10.9% following the company’s fiscal fourth-quarter earnings announcement. But with the options market pricing in a ±13.0% move and a history of more muted price action after earnings, are we witnessing the start of a new trend—or just another outlier?
Blowout Results Drive Post-Earnings Pop
Ciena’s earnings beat featured revenue up 20% year-over-year for the quarter and strong forward guidance. Management highlighted robust demand from cloud and service provider customers, expanded AI opportunities, and a business outlook for revenue as high as $6.1 billion in 2026.
The reaction: CIEN stock jumped 10.9%, which falls close to—but just under—the maximum one-day move observed over the past 12 quarters. For context, last quarter saw a move of +23.3%, a significant outlier versus the historical norm.
Historical Stock Performance Around Earnings: What Typically Happens?
Before you chase today’s big move, let’s see what CIEN usually does around earnings. Over the last 12 quarters, here’s the breakdown:
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | +2.2% | +3.7% | +3.6% | -4.7% | -1.5% |
| % of Moves Up | 58.3% | 58.3% | 41.7% | ||
| % of Moves Down | 41.7% | 41.7% | 58.3% |
In simple terms, CIEN is more likely than not to rise after earnings, but its average move (+2.2%) is well below today’s pop. Also worth noting: the stock has a habit of fading from the open to close on earnings days (-1.5% average), with nearly 60% of days closing lower than the open.
See Ciena’s full historical earnings price performance breakdown
Absolute Move Ranges: Just How Wild Do Earnings Swings Get?
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Absolute Average Return | 9.2% | 9.8% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 3.5% |
| Max Absolute Return | 23.3% | 21.3% | 7.6% | 9.8% | 7.6% |
| Min Absolute Return | 0.7% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 0.7% |
This puts today’s move on the high side, but not entirely without precedent—though most quarters don’t see a double-digit swing. The market was expecting fireworks, with options anticipating up to a ±13% move—almost in line with what we saw.
What Happens After the Dust Settles?
Here’s how CIEN typically trades after the earnings headline fades:
| Stock Performance | 1 Day After Earnings | 2 Days After Earnings | 3 Days After Earnings | 1 Week After Earnings | 2 Weeks After Earnings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | -0.6% | -1.4% | -1.8% | -0.1% | +1.9% |
| % of Moves Up | 36.4% | 36.4% | 18.2% | 45.5% | 54.5% |
| % of Moves Down | 63.6% | 63.6% | 81.8% | 54.5% | 45.5% |
The verdict: On average, the three days after earnings have been a challenge, with losses averaging -1.8% and nearly 82% of quarters moving lower during that window. Only after two weeks does the tide tend to turn positive—something to watch for swing traders hoping to ride the wave.
Options Action: Most Actively Traded Single Leg
On the options front, CIEN’s volume exploded to 3,228 contracts today, reflecting heightened interest. The day’s most traded single-leg option contract was the December 2025 190 put—likely reflecting a mix of hedging and speculation, given the big post-earnings swing.
| Option Contract | 12-Dec-25 190 P |
|---|---|
| Volume | 264 |
| VWAP Price | 0.06 |
| Open Interest | 114 |
| Yesterday's Closing Price | 35.15 |
Takeaway: Stay Alert to Post-Earnings Patterns
Today’s double-digit rally feels huge for Ciena, especially against its average historical reaction to earnings. But past results show the next few sessions often bring volatility and even downside. Is today the exception that breaks the mold, or another outlier before the typical pattern reasserts itself?
With strong guidance and broad options activity, CIEN’s momentum could prove more durable—but traders would be wise to keep historical patterns in mind before making bold bets. Want to dig deeper? Explore Ciena’s full historical earnings performance here.
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