Click to view the earnings moves in AZO
AutoZone Slides 5.3% After Earnings—Will It Bounce Back This Time?
If you’re an AutoZone (AZO) watcher, you know that earnings days are rarely quiet. Today, AZO stock sank -5.3% following its first quarter results—practically matching the ±5.3% move that options traders were bracing for. But does history suggest this knee-jerk drop is the end of the story, or just the start?
Solid Sales Growth—But Margins Pinch the Bottom Line
First, a quick earnings snapshot: AutoZone posted net sales of $4.6 billion (+8.2% year-over-year), driven by domestic same-store sales up 4.8% and international stores surging 11.2%. Earnings per share came in at $31.04—down from $32.52 last year—thanks to a margin hit from inventory accounting impacts and higher operating expenses to fuel growth. Still, with new stores opening and management upbeat on future expansion, operational momentum appears solid even if investors wanted more on the bottom line.
How Does AZO Usually React on Earnings Day?
Let’s cut to what traders really care about: How has AutoZone stock actually performed on earnings in the past?
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | -1.3% | -1.5% | +2.6% | -2.0% | +0.1% |
| % of Moves Up | 25.0% | 25.0% | 50.0% | ||
| % of Moves Down | 75.0% | 75.0% | 50.0% |
Over the past 12 quarters, AZO has actually averaged a -1.3% move on earnings days, and has moved lower 75% of the time at the open. Notably, the average open-to-close move is almost flat (+0.1%), meaning the real fireworks typically happen at the open—not in late-day reversals.
How Wild Are These Moves?
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Absolute Average Return | 2.6% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 2.3% |
| Max Absolute Return | 6.7% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 4.2% |
| Min Absolute Return | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 1.1% |
The typical move (absolute average) is around 2.6%, but there have been some outsized reactions, with max moves nearing 7%. Today's -5.3% decline is big, but not unprecedented given the stock’s historical volatility on results.
Post-Earnings: Bounce Back or More Slippage?
For traders and investors wondering if now’s the time to pounce after a drop, check out the historical returns in the days following earnings:
| Stock Performance | 1 Day After Earnings | 2 Days After Earnings | 3 Days After Earnings | 1 Week After Earnings | 2 Weeks After Earnings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | +0.9% | +0.9% | +1.5% | +1.6% | -0.3% |
| % of Moves Up | 63.6% | 45.5% | 72.7% | 54.5% | 36.4% |
| % of Moves Down | 36.4% | 54.5% | 27.3% | 45.5% | 63.6% |
Interestingly, after earnings-day dips, AZO has historically averaged +1.5% three days later, with nearly three out of four times closing higher at that mark. The bounce often loses steam by two weeks post-earnings, when the stock shows a mild negative return and a majority of cases end down.
What Should You Watch for Next?
AutoZone’s sharp post-earnings drop today is not a rare event. But, if history is a guide, short-term traders might see opportunity in the days after earnings, especially given the pattern of near-term rebounds.
However, big one-day moves can be both a trap and an opportunity. Consider all the factors—guidance, analyst revisions, and overall market sentiment—before betting on a reversal.
For a deeper dive into every AZO earnings-day move—including granular charts and breakdowns—check out the full historical earnings price movement stats here.
Bottom line: AZO has a history of opening weak on earnings, but the post-earnings story is less one-sided than today’s move suggests. Watch closely—history says the real story may unfold over the next few trading days.
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