Click to view the earnings moves in SCVL
Did Shoe Carnival's (SCVL) Earnings Move Beat the Odds?
It’s earnings day for Shoe Carnival (NASDAQ: SCVL), and the stock wasted no time leaping higher, gaining 5.8% after the company topped profit expectations by over 10% in Q1. But here’s the question savvy traders are asking: How does this stack up against Shoe Carnival’s history of stock performance on earnings days? And could the post-earnings momentum continue?
Shoe Carnival Surges on Outperformance—But Options Market Expected More
Shoe Carnival delivered a quarterly EPS of $0.34, handily beating forecasts. The upbeat results, highlighted by the successful acceleration of its rebanner strategy and cash-positive, debt-free balance sheet, had investors buying. Despite today’s rally, options markets had priced in an even bigger swing—a move of ±13.1%. With the actual move landing below expectations, some may be left wondering whether the excitement is justified—or if opportunity lies in the days ahead.
Historical Stock Moves: Do Bulls or Bears Win After Earnings?
If you’re considering what happens next for SCVL, it helps to dig into the data. Historically, SCVL has shown a positive tilt on earnings days, but the size and direction of the move can vary significantly. Here’s what the numbers show based on the past 12 quarters:
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | +2.5% | -1.0% | +7.8% | -2.4% | +3.6% |
| % of Moves Up | 66.7% | 41.7% | 83.3% | ||
| % of Moves Down | 33.3% | 58.3% | 16.7% |
Historically, SCVL has closed higher on 83% of earnings days—a strong showing for the bulls. While today’s 5.8% jump beats the average post-earnings close of +3.6%, the option-implied move signaled that even bigger volatility was on the table.
How Big Do Moves Get? Absolute Returns Reveal the Range
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Absolute Average Return | 5.3% | 4.8% | 7.8% | 2.4% | 4.1% |
| Max Absolute Return | 11.0% | 10.6% | 14.8% | 6.8% | 9.7% |
| Min Absolute Return | 0.5% | 1.4% | 4.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
The data highlights why option premiums can be expensive—while average moves are moderate, every so often there’s an outsized swing up to 11% or more.
What Happens After Earnings Day? Short-Term Stock Drift
The momentum doesn’t always last. After the initial jump or drop, SCVL’s average gain one day after earnings is just +0.7%, and three days out it’s only +0.9%. More often than not, these post-earnings days tilt slightly positive but are hardly a sure thing. Check the details below:
| Stock Performance | 1 Day After Earnings | 2 Days After Earnings | 3 Days After Earnings | 1 Week After Earnings | 2 Weeks After Earnings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | +0.7% | +1.3% | +0.9% | +0.7% | +1.0% |
| % of Moves Up | 54.5% | 45.5% | 36.4% | 54.5% | 54.5% |
| % of Moves Down | 45.5% | 54.5% | 63.6% | 45.5% | 45.5% |
What’s especially interesting is the three-day post-earnings performance: even though the stock typically jumps at first, gains rarely compound after day one. Only 36.4% of those periods end up positive, so traders expecting sustained follow-through should be cautious.
Want more detailed data on SCVL’s past earnings-day moves? See the full earnings move history here.
Options Market Pulse: The Hottest Contract on SCVL Today
Today’s options volume clocked in at 670 contracts, showing decent interest but well below levels seen for larger-cap peers. The most actively traded single leg option tells an intriguing story:
| Option Contract | 20-Jun-25 20 C |
|---|---|
| Volume | 160 |
| VWAP price | 0.56 |
| Open interest | 261 |
| Yesterday's closing price | 0.65 |
Most activity gravitated toward the $20 strike calls expiring in June 2025. This could signal traders either playing for a continuation rally—or hedging after a sharp move up. Notably, today’s contract price was slightly below yesterday’s close, possibly indicating profit taking or the waning of post-earnings volatility premiums.
Takeaway: Be Wary of the Post-Earnings Drift
Shoe Carnival’s stock pop was bigger than its typical historical move but still trailed what options traders had braced for. While the stock has a history of positive earnings-day action, follow-through is less consistent in the days after. If you’re betting on SCVL’s post-earnings run, the odds based on history favor a more cautious, data-driven approach. Keep an eye on that options activity—it could offer clues about what big traders expect next.
See full details on SCVL historical earnings moves here.
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