Click to view the earnings moves in CXM
Sprinklr (CXM) Posts Solid Q1 Earnings—Stock Jumps 3.7%. Will the Historical Trend Hold?
Sprinklr Class A (NYSE: CXM) turned heads today as it reported first quarter fiscal 2026 results, sending its shares up +3.7% to $8.88 in the latest trading. The move, though notable, comes against a backdrop of muted average reactions to earnings in the past—leaving investors to wonder: will CXM break its earnings day pattern this time around?
Strong Results, Buyback Buzz, and Active Options
The software firm delivered a 5% year-over-year revenue increase to $205.5 million, record free cash flow, and announced a fresh $150 million stock buyback program—big news for both growth seekers and value-focused traders. Subscription revenue also climbed 4% as management cited “solid progress” and set a positive tone for the transitional year ahead. The company's cash position remains strong, with over $570 million in reserves.
All this arrived with heightened attention in the options market, where today’s volume hit 697 contracts. Notably, the single most active option was the 20-Jun-25 7.5 Call, which saw brisk trading, reflecting bullish sentiment—or maybe hedging around the earnings volatility.
| Option Contract | 20-Jun-25 7.5 C |
|---|---|
| Volume | 211 |
| VWAP price | 1.62 |
| Open interest | 338 |
| Yesterday's closing price | 1.25 |
Earnings Day Moves: Does CXM Break the Mold?
Looking at history, Sprinklr has not exactly been a high-flyer on earnings days. Over the last 12 quarters, the stock averaged a -0.8% move on the day, with nearly 67% of earnings sessions ending positive—but most of those gains have been small. Initial gap moves (open vs. prior close) have averaged -0.9%, and there’s a subtle upside drift into the close with a +0.3% average return from the open, suggesting limited fireworks but more upside surprises than not. The average swing to the high was +5.6%, and to the low -4.3%, signaling volatility, but often within a tight band.
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | -0.8% | -0.9% | +5.6% | -4.3% | +0.3% |
| % of Moves Up | 66.7% | 58.3% | 58.3% | ||
| % of Moves Down | 33.3% | 41.7% | 41.7% |
Want to see more detailed historical price action and breakdowns? Check out the full earnings moves history on Market Chameleon’s historical earnings performance page.
How Big Are Earnings Moves?
CXM may look sleepy on average, but some past earnings moves have been big. The options market today was expecting a ±13.1% move. For context, the average absolute return on earnings days has been 9.8%, but the maximum move was a whopping 33.5%. Volatility tends to cluster around earnings for this name—even if the direction isn’t easy to guess.
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Absolute Average Return | 9.8% | 10.3% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 4.9% |
| Max Absolute Return | 33.5% | 28.7% | 13.6% | 12.1% | 12.2% |
| Min Absolute Return | 0.1% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.6% |
Post-Earnings Trends: Caution Required?
History shows CXM sometimes struggles after its earnings buzz fades. Average returns turn negative within days, especially by three days post-earnings (-2.4%). In only about a third of past events did the stock close higher after three days or a week, with modest rebounds more common two weeks out.
| Stock Performance | 1 Day After Earnings | 2 Days After Earnings | 3 Days After Earnings | 1 Week After Earnings | 2 Weeks After Earnings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | +0.6% | -0.6% | -2.4% | -1.7% | -2.9% |
| % of Moves Up | 54.5% | 54.5% | 36.4% | 36.4% | 54.5% |
| % of Moves Down | 45.5% | 45.5% | 63.6% | 63.6% | 45.5% |
What’s Next for CXM Traders?
With management forecasting a stable second quarter and ongoing strategic investments, and with a sizable new buyback authorization, CXM has reasons for optimism. Yet, its earnings-day history suggests that traders should stay alert—big option market bets, outsized past moves, and mixed short-term follow-through mean both risk and opportunity are on the table. Dig deeper into CXM's historical earnings stock performance here and keep an eye on that options activity for early clues about the next chapter.
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