Click to view the earnings moves in TME
Tencent Music Delivers a Hit—Stock Jumps Nearly 13% After Strong Earnings
If you thought Tencent Music Entertainment Group (NYSE:TME) was going to keep it quiet this quarter, think again. Shares ripped higher by 12.9% following their second quarter 2025 earnings release, far exceeding the ±7.1% move options traders had priced in.
How Has TME Typically Traded Around Earnings?
To put today’s rally in perspective, it pays to look at the stock’s historical moves on earnings days. Over the last 12 quarters, TME has:
- Averaged a +4.1% return on earnings days
- Seen positive moves 66.7% of the time
- Shown a bullish drift from the open to close, with a +4.2% average and a 75.0% up-rate
- Experienced outsized swings, with a max single-day move of 30.6% and an average earnings move magnitude of 9.7%
To explore these patterns and see more data, check out TME’s full historical stock performance around earnings.
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | +4.1% | -0.3% | +7.1% | -4.3% | +4.2% |
| % of Moves Up | 66.7% | 50.0% | 75.0% | ||
| % of Moves Down | 33.3% | 50.0% | 25.0% |
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Absolute Average Return | 9.7% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 4.3% | 6.2% |
| Max Absolute Return | 30.6% | 13.2% | 23.6% | 13.4% | 22.3% |
| Min Absolute Return | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.8% |
What About the Days After Earnings?
If history repeats, traders might expect the rally to continue—or at least not fade quickly. On average, TME’s stock moves:
- +2.4% the day after earnings
- +4.0% after 2 days (with 72.7% of those days finishing higher)
- +4.9% after two weeks
| Stock Performance | 1 Day After Earnings | 2 Days After Earnings | 3 Days After Earnings | 1 Week After Earnings | 2 Weeks After Earnings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | +2.4% | +4.0% | +2.3% | +3.1% | +4.9% |
| % of Moves Up | 63.6% | 72.7% | 63.6% | 63.6% | 63.6% |
| % of Moves Down | 36.4% | 27.3% | 36.4% | 36.4% | 36.4% |
Options Market and Today’s Hot Trade
TME’s earnings weren’t just a win for stockholders. Options traders piled in, trading 9,295 contracts—much heavier than usual. The most actively traded single-leg option was the 15-Aug-25 25 C call, which saw significant volume and price action.
| Option Contract | 15-Aug-25 25 C |
| Volume | 1,272 |
| VWAP price | 0.81 |
| Open interest | 1,323 |
| Yesterday's closing price | 0.20 |
Why Did TME Rally? Earnings Highlights
What’s behind the spike? TME posted stellar results: revenue jumped 17.9% year-over-year, driven by robust music subscription growth (+17.1% y/y). Net profit leaped 43.2%, and key user engagement stats like SVIP memberships hit all-time highs. Comments from executives highlighted ongoing product innovation, new partnerships with artists and platforms, and momentum in both digital and live events. If you’re seeking more background, you can review the official earnings announcement.
Takeaway: Is the Party Just Getting Started?
With today’s post-earnings jump already beating historical averages, traders might wonder: will TME follow its typical trend and continue climbing in the days ahead? Past data shows the odds tilt bullish, especially in the two days after a report. But as always, each quarter writes its own story. Watch options flow and stock action closely, and track historical patterns for TME’s earnings moves here.
Contact Information:
If you have feedback or concerns about the content, please feel free to reach out to us via email at support@marketchameleon.com.
About the Publisher - Marketchameleon.com:
Marketchameleon is a comprehensive financial research and analysis website specializing in stock and options markets. We leverage extensive data, models, and analytics to provide valuable insights into these markets. Our primary goal is to assist traders in identifying potential market developments and assessing potential risks and rewards.
NOTE: Stock and option trading involves risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Examples contained within this report are simulated and may have limitations. Average returns and occurrences are calculated from snapshots of market mid-point prices and were not actually executed, so they do not reflect actual trades, fees, or execution costs. This report is for informational purposes only, and is not intended to be a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Neither Market Chameleon nor any other party makes warranties regarding results from its usage. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Please consult a financial advisor before executing any trades. You can read more about option risks and characteristics at theocc.com.
The information is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. All stock price information is provided and transmitted as received from independent third-party data sources. The Information should only be used as a starting point for doing additional independent research in order to allow you to form your own opinion regarding investments and trading strategies. The Company does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the Information.