Click to view the earnings moves in PFGC
Earnings Day Surprise: PFGC Outpaces the Options Market
Performance Food Group Company (NYSE: PFGC) delivered its fourth-quarter and full-year results today—and the market responded with a robust 4.8% stock move higher, exceeding the options market’s expected ±6.1% move. Is this just another typical post-earnings rally for PFGC, or does history suggest something more?
What’s Driving the Move?
Today’s surge came on the heels of upbeat financials: case volume, sales, and adjusted EBITDA all posted double-digit gains. Yet, even with a 19.9% jump in adjusted EBITDA for the quarter, reported net income and diluted EPS slipped year-over-year as acquisition and integration costs weighed. The company set optimistic 2026 guidance, suggesting continued momentum ahead.
But the real story for traders is in the historical earnings patterns and what tends to follow a day like this. To help make sense of today’s pop, let’s examine the stats from past PFGC earnings announcements. Check out the full historical stock performance stats around earnings here.
PFGC's Typical Earnings Day Moves
Historically, PFGC’s earnings days are anything but sleepy. Over the past 12 quarters, here’s what the data says:
- Average return on earnings day: +2.0% (equal 50/50 odds of up vs down moves)
- Stock typically opens +0.6% higher vs previous close (50% up, 41.7% down)
- Drift from open to close averages +1.4%—more often positive (58.3% of the time)
- Average move to the high: +4.0%; move to the low: -2.1%, showing more upside bursts
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | +2.0% | +0.6% | +4.0% | -2.1% | +1.4% |
| % of Moves Up | 50.0% | 50.0% | 58.3% | ||
| % of Moves Down | 50.0% | 41.7% | 41.7% |
Magnitude: Just How Big Are These Moves?
How wild do things get? The data shows PFGC can swing sharply on earnings days, with the biggest move reaching a staggering 9.1%:
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Absolute Average Return | 3.9% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 2.4% |
| Max Absolute Return | 9.1% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 7.1% |
| Min Absolute Return | 0.2% | 0.0% | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.3% |
What Happens After Earnings Day?
Traders love to ask, "What’s next?" PFGC's stats hint that momentum sometimes carries forward. In fact, the day after earnings has delivered positive returns 72.7% of the time over the last 12 quarters, though the size of that move is generally moderate.
| Stock Performance | 1 Day After Earnings | 2 Days After Earnings | 3 Days After Earnings | 1 Week After Earnings | 2 Weeks After Earnings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | +0.5% | +0.4% | +1.3% | +1.3% | +0.9% |
| % of Moves Up | 72.7% | 63.6% | 63.6% | 45.5% | 54.5% |
| % of Moves Down | 27.3% | 36.4% | 36.4% | 54.5% | 45.5% |
The key takeaway? PFGC doesn’t just rally on good earnings days—it often follows through with additional (though more modest) upside moves over the next few days.
Options Market: Today's Standout Contract
Options activity can offer an inside look at where the smart money might be positioning. Today’s most actively traded single-leg option was the September 2025 $100 call:
| Option Contract | 19-Sep-25 100 C |
|---|---|
| Volume | 84 |
| VWAP price | 4.23 |
| Open interest | 121 |
| Yesterday's closing price | 3.98 |
This option's spike in activity—along with the day's 338 total contracts traded—suggests traders were bracing for a bigger move or hedging bets in anticipation of more volatility.
Final Take: Does the Past Repeat?
PFGC's post-earnings patterns favor volatility—moves both up and down are evenly split, but upside moves can be outsized and often followed by mild gains in subsequent days. Today's 4.8% pop sits above the typical earnings move, potentially signaling more than just a routine rally.
Will the new financial guidance and upbeat volume trends drive continued momentum, or does this set the bar high for the quarters ahead? The answer may rest in both market sentiment and the execution of the company’s strategy. Either way, if history is any guide, traders may want to stay tuned for aftershocks.
Explore full historical earnings day stats here.
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