Click to view the earnings moves in SIG
SIG Posts Strong Q2: What Does History Say About Earnings Moves?
Signet Jewelers (NYSE: SIG) announced its Q2 Fiscal 2026 results today, sending a ripple through both the stock and options markets. While the options market was pricing in a dramatic ±11.6% swing ahead of the event, SIG’s actual price response came in much more muted at +0.4%—raising the big question: what does history say about SIG's earnings reactions, and should traders expect more action to follow?
A Closer Look at SIG’s Earnings Report
Today’s report came in ahead of guidance, and management raised full-year expectations. Standouts included a 3% sales gain to $1.54 billion, strong comp sales at Kay, Zales, and Jared, and adjusted EPS climbing to $1.61 from $1.25 last year. The company also grew its adjusted operating income by more than 20%—and with more than $570 million still available for share buybacks, SIG appears committed to rewarding shareholders. For all the details, you can view the full historical earnings price movement statistics.
What Usually Happens Around SIG Earnings?
Looking at the past 12 quarters, SIG has displayed a bias to the upside on earnings day:
- The average return on earnings day is +2.9%, with 66.7% of those days posting a gain.
- The initial gap at the open averages +2.7%, but just as telling is that 58.3% of the time, this gap is up versus down.
- The range from the open to the day’s high tends toward the upside at +4.7%, while the move to the low averages -3.6%.
- From open to close, however, the average return is much smaller—just +0.2%, split evenly between up and down moves.
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | +2.9% | +2.7% | +4.7% | -3.6% | +0.2% |
| % of Moves Up | 66.7% | 58.3% | 50.0% | ||
| % of Moves Down | 33.3% | 41.7% | 50.0% |
For perspective, here’s how volatile the stock can be on these big days—regardless of direction:
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Absolute Average Return | 11.1% | 10.3% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 3.8% |
| Max Absolute Return | 20.2% | 19.0% | 9.9% | 12.0% | 9.7% |
| Min Absolute Return | 0.6% | 2.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
Post-Earnings Performance: More Upside in Store?
Historically, SIG has posted further gains in the aftermath of earnings—suggesting that the initial move may not be the whole story. Here’s the breakdown:
| Stock Performance | 1 Day After Earnings | 2 Days After Earnings | 3 Days After Earnings | 1 Week After Earnings | 2 Weeks After Earnings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | +1.3% | +0.8% | +1.7% | +3.2% | +4.4% |
| % of Moves Up | 45.5% | 36.4% | 45.5% | 63.6% | 63.6% |
| % of Moves Down | 54.5% | 63.6% | 54.5% | 36.4% | 36.4% |
The takeaway? Despite sometimes muted reactions on the day of the event, the stock’s average 1-week post-earnings gain is a strong +3.2%, and more than 60% of the time, SIG trades higher two weeks after earnings.
Spotlight: Most Actively Traded SIG Option Today
Traders should note the outsized action in SIG's options market—particularly given today's moderate move. The most actively traded single-leg contract was the 19-Sep-25 95 P put, potentially indicating a hedging play or speculation that the muted reaction might be short-lived. Here’s a closer look:
| Attribute | Value |
|---|---|
| Option Contract | 19-Sep-25 95 P |
| Volume | 548 |
| VWAP Price | 8.44 |
| Open Interest | 27 |
| Yesterday's Closing Price | 3.25 |
With today's option volume at 3,221 contracts—well above normal—it's clear traders are positioning for further movement even if today’s headline stock price move seemed quiet.
What to Watch Going Forward
Today's earnings beat and guidance raise were not a one-off surprise: SIG has a track record of upside moves and continued outperformance after results, with options traders already staking out significant positions. Whether you’re considering riding the post-earnings drift or simply looking for volatility, history shows SIG is a name worth tracking after results drop.
Curious to see more details? Check out the full historical earnings price movement page for SIG.
Contact Information:
If you have feedback or concerns about the content, please feel free to reach out to us via email at support@marketchameleon.com.
About the Publisher - Marketchameleon.com:
Marketchameleon is a comprehensive financial research and analysis website specializing in stock and options markets. We leverage extensive data, models, and analytics to provide valuable insights into these markets. Our primary goal is to assist traders in identifying potential market developments and assessing potential risks and rewards.
NOTE: Stock and option trading involves risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Examples contained within this report are simulated and may have limitations. Average returns and occurrences are calculated from snapshots of market mid-point prices and were not actually executed, so they do not reflect actual trades, fees, or execution costs. This report is for informational purposes only, and is not intended to be a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Neither Market Chameleon nor any other party makes warranties regarding results from its usage. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Please consult a financial advisor before executing any trades. You can read more about option risks and characteristics at theocc.com.
The information is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. All stock price information is provided and transmitted as received from independent third-party data sources. The Information should only be used as a starting point for doing additional independent research in order to allow you to form your own opinion regarding investments and trading strategies. The Company does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the Information.