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High-Volume USO Call Spread Yields 14.5% Gain on Price Rally
On March 5th, a sizable options trade in United States Oil (USO) caught attention: a 2,020-lot call spread, covering the $95-$105 strike range for the March 13, 2026 expiration, traded at a VWAP (volume-weighted average price) of $2.80 per spread. By 11:30 AM the same day, the spread value had jumped to $3.21—handing its buyers an average gain of $0.41 per contract, or 14.5%. This price move accompanied a $0.95 gain in USO’s share price from $94.88 to $95.83.
Call Spread Trade Details: $283K Outlay for Up to $727K Potential Gain
| Option Spread | Expiration | Strikes | Contracts | Trade Price | Current Spread Price | Initial Cost | Potential Payout | Days to Expiration |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Call Spread | Mar-13-2026 | $95-$105 | 2,020 | $2.80 | $3.21 | $283,000 | $727,000 | 8 |
The traders committed over $283K for the spread, which has the potential to return up to $727K if USO is at or above $105 by expiration—just 8 days away. View trade details and analysis for USO here.
Technical Indicators Signal Aggressive Bullish Momentum
USO technicals line up behind the bullish setup seen in the options market. Here’s what stands out today:
- Current Price: $95.83, up 4.66% for the day, and a full 4.27 points higher.
- Open Jump: The ETF gapped up 3.2% at the open and continued higher, up 1.4% after the opening price.
- Momentum: The stock is now 58% above its 52-week low and has posted a 20.7% gain over the last two weeks alone.
- Moving Averages: USO trades 19.2% over the 20-day, 27.1% above the 50-day, and 31.8% above the 250-day moving averages. The uptrend is firmly intact, with shorter-term moving averages well above longer-term averages (20-day vs. 50-day: +6.7%; 20-day vs. 250-day: +10.6%).
- Breakouts: Price is breaking above the daily resistance of $93.72, reinforcing the case for near-term strength.
Stock Performance vs SPY
| Duration | USO Return | Price Low | Price High | SPY Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | +4.7% | 94.06 | 96.86 | -0.7% |
| 2 Week | +20.7% | 78.04 | 96.86 | -0.8% |
| 1 Month | +23.1% | 75.18 | 96.86 | -0.8% |
| 3 Month | +34.3% | 65.99 | 96.86 | -0.3% |
| 6 Month | +29.2% | 65.99 | 96.86 | +5.4% |
| 1 Year | +30.8% | 60.67 | 96.86 | +19.2% |
| YTD | +38.6% | 67.35 | 96.86 | -0.2% |
| 3 Year | +37.2% | 57.83 | 96.86 | +73.6% |
| 5 Year | +122.5% | 39.27 | 96.86 | +89.4% |
USO has significantly outperformed the SPY ETF across nearly every tracked period, especially in the short term. For example, during the last three months, USO surged +34.3% while SPY was essentially flat at -0.3%.
Option Skew Bullish: 30-Day Skew Indicator at 98% Rank
The Market Chameleon proprietary skew indicator uses 30-day implied volatility to gauge sentiment. Currently, USO’s skew score sits at a 98% rank—just shy of the most bullish reading possible in the last year. High skew percentiles frequently accompany strong upside expectations, suggesting that traders are positioning for continued price gains.
Key Takeaways: Bulls Push Leverage with Further Upside in Sight
This USO call spread trade stands out for its timing and size—buyers captured a notable 14.5% gain within hours, but they could realize a substantially larger payout if USO continues its upward trajectory. Technicals and option-market posture confirm that current sentiment is highly bullish, with both momentum and implied volatility running hot.
While the outcome of this trade hinges on USO’s ability to clear $105 by next week’s expiration, it’s a prime example of how leveraged strategies align with technical and sentiment indicators in fast-moving markets. For those wanting to dive deeper into similar trades, check out the multi-leg trade screener for more call spreads and advanced options strategies.
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NOTE: Stock and option trading involves risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Examples contained within this report are simulated and may have limitations. Average returns and occurrences are calculated from snapshots of market mid-point prices and were not actually executed, so they do not reflect actual trades, fees, or execution costs. This report is for informational purposes only, and is not intended to be a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Neither Market Chameleon nor any other party makes warranties regarding results from its usage. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Please consult a financial advisor before executing any trades. You can read more about option risks and characteristics at theocc.com.
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Disclosure: This article was generated with the assistance of AI