KRE Bear Put Spread at $2.78 Seems to be Below Fair Value


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This KRE Debit Put Spread Can Net 44% in 13 Days

Bearish play with a target stock price of $45 or below

Strategy has +44% upside potential and 6% undervalued


Expiration14-Apr-23
Buy49 Put
Sell45 Put
Debit:$2.78


SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF has seen its price gain +2.0% today to $44.40. Based on moving averages, KRE has been in a downtrend since March 10, so this spread would be a great way to leverage a bearish outlook. Based on historical stock price behavior, this spread for KRE has a theoretical 72% success rate.

Option Profit Calculator for KRE Put Spread at 14-Apr-23 Expiration

If KRE stock price at expiration is at or below $45.00, this spread has a 44% upside potential

The optimal stock price for this option strategy is to close at or below $45.00 on the expiration date, April 14, 2023. In that scenario, both puts would be in-the-money, so the spread would be worth the maximum value of 4.00. That would equate to the potential upside of +44% for this put spread with 13 days left to expiration.

The maximum gain will be realized if the stock price is at or below 45.00. The maximum gain is $1.22

The breakeven point is at 46.22, which is 4.1% above the current spot price.

The maximum loss will occur when the stock price is at or above 49. The max loss is $2.78.

KRE Spread Current Market Price vs. Historical Average

KRE Put Spread is trading at a 6% discount to historical average.

Using historical data to measure how a similar spread in KRE was priced in the market, the 4-year average value was 2.94, with a high mark of 3.29 and a low of 1.99.

Currently, this vertical put spread is bid at 2.48 and offered at 2.78. The midpoint of the spread is 2.63.

If we use 2.94 as our historical fair value benchmark, the current market ask price is at a 6% discount, while the current market midpoint represents a 11% discount.

Current PriceHistorical Values of Similar Spreads
BidAskMidpointAverageHighLow
2.482.782.632.943.291.99
Market Chameleon captures daily records of market data to calculate historical benchmarks and generate estimated values.

Takeaway

The KRE put spread we've identified here can be a good way to play a bearish outlook because the option strategy has a +44% upside potential, is 6% underpriced relative to historical measures, and will benefit from a stock price at or below $45.

See how Market Chameleon can help you make smarter and more efficient trades!


NOTE: Stock and option trading involves risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Examples contained within this report are simulated And may have limitations. Average returns and occurrences are calculated from snapshots of market mid-point prices And were Not actually executed, so they do not reflect actual trades, fees, or execution costs. This report is for informational purposes only, and is not intended to be a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Neither Market Chameleon nor any other party makes warranties regarding results from its usage. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Please consult a financial advisor before executing any trades. You can read more about option risks and characteristics at theocc.com.


The information is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. All stock price information is provided and transmitted as received from independent third-party data sources. The Information should only be used as a starting point for doing additional independent research in order to allow you to form your own opinion regarding investments and trading strategies. The Company does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the Information.