Biotech Stock Catalysts
The Biotech Stock Catalysts report lists the clinical trial completion dates, PDUFA dates and biotech company events we track for stocks with listed options, each with the first option expiration after the event, the move its at-the-money straddle implies and the stock's average and largest moves over the same number of days in the past six years. The Fast Cash Burn report lists companies whose operating cash flow was negative in each of their last four quarters, with the months of cash left at that rate.
What are biotech stock catalysts?
A catalyst is a scheduled event that can move a stock sharply. Biotech stocks often have several: clinical trial results, FDA decisions and company presentations. The Biotech Stock Catalysts report lists the upcoming ones we track for stocks with listed options, next to the option expiration that covers each event and the size of move those options price in. The Fast Cash Burn report adds a second question investors ask about drug developers: how fast a company is spending cash, and how many months it could last at that rate.
How we build the reports
- Three kinds of events. Clinical trials registered on ClinicalTrials.gov, matched to the listed company that sponsors them, while the trial's primary completion date or completion date is still ahead. PDUFA dates, the FDA's target dates for drug decisions. And company events of biotechnology companies, such as conferences and data presentations.
- Dates. Events from the current trading day on are listed. When a trial's date is given as a range, the report shows the month and year. Many dates are company estimates.
- The option expiration that covers it. For each event the report finds the first option expiration after the event date, with its open interest, calls plus puts. Stocks without listed options, or without an expiration after the event, are left out.
- Implied move. The price of that expiration's at-the-money straddle - a call plus a put - as a share of the at-the-money price: how far the options market expects the stock to move, up or down, by expiration.
- Past moves. The stock's average and largest moves, either way, over periods of the same number of days in the past six years. The Ratio columns divide the implied move by each.
- Updates. The catalyst list is rebuilt every 6 to 7 minutes. Before the open, and on weekends and holidays, prices and option data come from the last trading day.
- Fast Cash Burn. Lists the common stocks and REITs we track, except shell companies, whose cash flow from operating activities was negative in each of their last four quarterly reports, in any industry. The monthly burn rate is those four quarters added up and divided by 12; the runway is the latest cash balance divided by the monthly burn. The list is rebuilt about every 15 minutes.
Event dates come from public announcements, and many are estimates that can change. The reports show timing, option prices and cash figures, not how a stock will react.
What you can find out
Which biotech stocks have catalysts coming up?
The report lists the events we track, earliest first, with the event, its date, the option expiration that covers it and the implied move. Premium and Premium Options members can narrow it by event type, expiration, market cap, price move, average option volume and their watchlist. See upcoming biotech catalysts
When is a company's clinical trial expected to finish?
Set the event filter to Clinical Trials, and the phase filter if you like. The date is the trial's primary completion date, or its completion date once the primary date has passed; hover over the event for the trial's title and the conditions it studies. See clinical trial dates
How big a move are options pricing in for the event?
Implied Move is the straddle for the expiration after the event as a share of the price. Ratio Implied to Hist Abs Avg compares it with the stock's average move over periods of that length: above 1.0, options price in more than the stock usually moves. How a straddle works
Which FDA decision dates are coming up?
Set the event filter to PDUFA to see the FDA target dates on the report with their option expirations. The PDUFA Dates list shows each date with the drug, the type of application and its source. How the PDUFA Dates list works
Which companies could run short of cash?
The Fast Cash Burn report shows each company's average monthly burn rate, cash balance and runway in months. Members of any Premium plan can filter by runway, industry - for example biotechnology - market cap, price, listed options, option volume, IV rank and shareholders' equity against market cap. See the Fast Cash Burn report
Where to find it
Menu: Options › For Premium Users › Catalyst Events › Biotech Stock Catalysts, or go straight to /Reports/biotech-stock-catalysts. Click an expiration date to open the stock's option chain for it. The Fast Cash Burn report is under Stocks › For Premium Users › Reports › Fast Cash Burn Report, at /Reports/FastCashBurnReport; click a symbol there for the company's cash flow statement.
On Biotech Stock Catalysts, Premium and Premium Options members see the stocks and can search and filter. Everyone else sees every event with its date, expiration and implied move, but the symbol, price and market cap hidden. On Fast Cash Burn, members of any Premium plan see every company's figures and the filters; everyone else sees the list with the burn rate, cash, runway and technical indicator shown only for the largest company.
What the columns mean
| Column | What it shows |
|---|---|
| Event Title, Date | The kind of event - a clinical trial with its phase, a PDUFA date or a company event - and its date; hover for details |
| Expiration Date, Open Interest | The first option expiration after the event, and its open calls plus puts |
| Implied Move | The at-the-money straddle for that expiration as a share of the price |
| Historical Abs Avg Move, Abs Max Move | The stock's average and largest moves, either way, over periods of the same length in the past six years |
| Ratio Implied to Hist Abs Avg, Abs Max | The implied move divided by each of those |
| Notes | A trial's conditions, or an event's location and notes |
| Months to Burnout (Runway) | On Fast Cash Burn: the latest cash balance divided by the average monthly burn rate |
FAQ
- Where do the event dates come from?
- Clinical trial dates come from ClinicalTrials.gov, matched to the listed company that sponsors the trial. PDUFA dates and company events come from company announcements. Many dates are estimates and can change.
- Why isn't a biotech stock on the report?
- A row needs an event in our data and listed options with an expiration after the event date. Company events are included only for stocks classed as biotechnology.
- What is the implied move?
- The price of the at-the-money straddle for the expiration that covers the event, as a share of the price: how far the options market expects the stock to move, up or down, by that expiration. It covers the whole time to expiration, not just the event.
- How is the cash runway worked out?
- We add up the last four quarters of cash flow from operating activities and divide by 12 for a monthly burn rate, then divide the latest cash balance by it. It assumes the burn rate stays the same.
- Who can use the reports?
- Premium and Premium Options members see the stocks on Biotech Stock Catalysts and can search and filter; everyone else sees the events with the symbol, price and market cap hidden. On Fast Cash Burn, members of any Premium plan see every company's figures.
- Is a catalyst a reason to trade options?
- Not by itself. The reports show when events are expected and how options are priced, not how a stock will react.
Related
PDUFA Dates Company Events Calendar Earnings Implied Moves StraddleTerms on this page
PDUFA date Clinical trial phase Implied move Cash burn rateMarket Chameleon provides data, not investment advice.