Largest Positive Opening Gaps for MSFT

How does MSFT usually behave after a large gap-up move?

Using the 12 largest gap-up moves over the last 3 years in MSFT stock, the average move was +2.4% with the single largest opening gap of +3.6% occurring on 28-Oct-2025. Following the opening, MSFT tended to drift lower to the closing price 67% of the time for an average loss of -0.6%. The following day, MSFT stock price averaged +1.3% gains, with up moves more frequent than down moves. The stock was up 58% of the time in that period one day after these significant gaps. Earnings dates have been excluded from this analysis.

Catalysts

6 of MSFT's 12 largest moves corresponded with a large gap up in the overall market. 3 of the moves coincided with a company-issued press release.

Open-to-High and Open-to-Low

The largest percentage gain from the open to the high of the day was +2.2% on 22-Jan-2025, while the biggest drop from the open to the low was -4.8% on 8-Apr-2025. On average, the MSFT stock price gain from the opening price to the highest point of the day was +0.8%, and the average drop to the lowest point was -1.5%.

Day Drift Open-to-Close

The best performance in MSFT stock price from opening price to closing price (referred to as the "drift" for the day) was on 22-Jan-2025 for a +2.0% gain after the stock gapped up +2.1% at the open. The worst worst return from the opening price to the closing price was on 8-Apr-2025 when the stock lost -3.7% after the stock gapped up +2.8%. Overall in the 12 available observations, the stock drifted lower 67% of the time for an average loss of -0.6%.