UVXY Bullish Call Spread at $1.48 Appears to be a Good Buy

25 October 2023, 12:14 PM

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By Dmitry Pargamanik

How this UVXY Bull Call Spread Works

The bottom of the UVXY trade card shows us that we would buy one call and sell another with the same 17-Nov-23 expiration (this is a bull call spread as indicated on the top of the card).

Buy: 17-Nov-23 14 CALL

Sell: 17-Nov-23 16.5 CALL

Reasons to Like This Trade

  • You can buy this spread for $1.48 when theoretically it’s worth $1.81. Simply put, the market is implying a theoretical edge of 22.6%.
  • Your maximum gain is $1.02, which means you can make an astounding 68.9% return on your investment in 18 trading days! (That's if the stock closes at 16.5 or above. $1.02 / $1.48 = 68.9%) At the time of this alert, the stock was trading at 17.85.
  • The stock only needs to close at, or above, 16.50 after 18 trading days for you to realize this maximum return. Since the stock is already above your ideal price of 16.50, you have a cushion in the strategy. The stock can decline by -13.3% and you'll still break even. If the stock stays here or goes higher you will make your max gain.
  • 5 out of 7 indicators are pointing to a bullish sentiment in the stock, which is enough to believe there is a decent chance the stock price could hit its mark of 16.50. Look, nobody knows for sure if the stock is going to go up or down, but, if you had to handicap the stock price, these metrics are indicating that UVXY is really riding the momentum of bullish signals.
    Metric Signal Bull or Bear
    Relative Performance 1-yr Underperform Bearish
    Relative Performance 3-Mon Outperform Bullish UVXY Bullish Relative Performance 3 Month
    Relative Performance 2-Wk Outperform Bullish UVXY Bullish Relative Performance 2 Week
    Seasonality Weak Bearish
    Technical Bullish Crossover Bullish UVXY Bullish Technical Indicator
    Historical Price Action 54% Uptrend Bullish UVXY Bullish Historical Price Action
    Option Order Flow Sentiment Positive Net Option Delta Bullish UVXY Bullish Option Order Flow Sentiment

Conclusion

This trade in UVXY looks like a good opportunity because:

  1. 5 out of 7 bullish indicators support positive momentum
  2. 68.9% potential return on your investment
  3. Theoretical edge of 22.6%
  4. The stock price is already at the price point for you to make your max gain and can even go down by -13.3% and you'll still break even!

Don't Let an Opportunity Pass You By!


How to Find More UVXY Bull Call Spread Strategies

How you can find bull call spread trade ideas for other stocks


And if you want to find more bull call spreads for other stocks, go to the bull call spread screener


Relative Performance

UVXY stock has underperformed the market in the last year with a return of -84.8%, while SPY returned +12.5%. This shows that you would have done better investing in the overall market (through SPY) over the last year than in UVXY shares. However, UVXY has outperformed the market in the last 3 month and 2 week periods, returning +7.8% and +17.1%, while SPY returned -7.3% and -3.4%, respectively. This indicates UVXY has been having a stronger performance recently.

Learn about a stocks relative strength


Seasonality: Weak

The strategy involves holding the position from Oct 25 to Nov 17 expiration. Historically, this has been a weak seasonal period. In the past 12 years, UVXY shares have decreased 91% of the time between Oct 25 to Nov 17, while averaging a return of -12.7%. Learn how to look up stock seasonality.

Technical: Bullish Crossover

The stock has been on a downtrend and the short term moving average (20day) made a bullish crossover. Can be the beginning of a trend reversal.

Historical Price Action: 54% Uptrend

In the last 4 years, there were 28 historical samples of UVXY stock price movements over the same time period as this option spread. The stock moved up 54% of the time for an average return of +20.4%.

How to generate statistics on a stocks historical price return distribution

Option Order Flow Sentiment: Positive Net Option Delta

At the time of this UVXY trade idea, bullish option order flow exceeded bearish option order flow. The net option delta volume was 83 K.

Learn more about option delta volume.

Find out the latest sentiment from the options market for UVXY

Videos you might like

How to Screen for the Best Bull Call Spread


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About the Publisher - Marketchameleon.com:


Marketchameleon is a comprehensive financial research and analysis website specializing in stock and options markets. We leverage extensive data, models, and analytics to provide valuable insights into these markets. Our primary goal is to assist traders in identifying potential market developments and assessing potential risks and rewards.



NOTE: Stock and option trading involves risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Examples contained within this report are simulated and may have limitations. Average returns and occurrences are calculated from snapshots of market mid-point prices and were not actually executed, so they do not reflect actual trades, fees, or execution costs. This report is for informational purposes only, and is not intended to be a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Neither Market Chameleon nor any other party makes warranties regarding results from its usage. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Please consult a financial advisor before executing any trades. You can read more about option risks and characteristics at theocc.com.


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