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What is attractive about this VALE call spread?

This VALE trade card helps you identify a bullish opportunity with a statistical edge.

The bull call spread image at the top shows a theoretical value of a trade at $1.14, which is $0.05 lower than its market price. The theoretical value of $1.14 was computed using historical data. The market price of $1.09, on the other hand, is the pricing of the trade based on the current market.

However, the most important information displayed by the trade card is the theoretical edge, estimated at 4.2%. It represents the anticipated long-term average return on each trade (assuming the VALE future price return distributions will be the same as in the past).

To help you better understand this, let's go over how the theoretical value was found.

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The following infograph for VALE displays how the the theoretical value was determined.

NOTE: The probabilites were caculated using actual historical data.

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Let's walk through this trade idea

We want to determine if this trade opportunity is a good deal and why.

The first thing we want to do is list out all the information that is important to evaluate the trade. We will split the information into knowns and unknowns.

What we know

Strategy: VALE Debit Call Spread

Buy:	21-Apr-23 14 CALL
Sell:	21-Apr-23 15.5 CALL
Market Price [Debit]:	$1.09
Trading Days Left to Expiration:	18
Stock Price:	$15.39

Potential Value

Now let's figure out the potential value of this spread at the end of 18 trading days (when these option contracts expire). The value will depend on the stock price on Apr 21, 2023 (i.e. on the expiration date, 18 trading days as of the time of this writing).

Scenario	1	2	3
Stock Price:	Below $14 [Drops more than -9.0%]	Between $14 and $15.5 [Stays Between -9.0% and +0.7%]	Above $15.5 [Goes up more than +0.7%]
Value of Spread:	$0.00	$0.00 to $1.50	$1.50

What are the outcomes for this VALE bull call spread?

Scenario 1: If the stock falls below $14.00 (i.e. drops more than -9.0% from the current price of $15.39), then both calls will expire worthless and this spread will be worth $0 at expiration.

Scenario 2: If the stock is anywhere between $14 and $15.5 (i.e. stays between -9.0% and +0.7%) at expiration, then the spread will be worth $0.00 to $1.50 (depending on the price of the stock at expiration). Note: By clicking the Report tab on a live trade card, you can see the various outcomes for the spread value within the Payout Diagram section.

Scenario 3: If the stock is above $15.5 (i.e. increases by more than +0.7%), then the spread will be worth $1.50.

What we don't know

The problem is that we don't know where VALE stock price will be at expiration (uncertainty). If we did know, then the value of this spread would be easy to calculate.

Therefore, the next best thing we can do is use historical data to estimate the probabilities of the 3 scenarios above (similar to how an insurance company calculates the probability of accident claims).

How to estimate the call spread value

Using historical data, let's find out the following to see how the stock tended to perform over a 18 day trading period.

How frequently did VALE

• Drop by more than -9.0% (Scenario 1)
• Stay between -9.0% and +0.7% (Scenario 2)
• Go above +0.7% (Scenario 3)

Fortunately, we have the benefit of computers to do the tedious work for us. We will use 4 years of data and adjust for earnings dates and implied volatility events.

Here are the results:

(Click on the Report tab on the top right of a live trade card to see this data in the Theoretical Value Analysis section.)

The historical data shows that, over a 18 day period, VALE dropped more than -9.0% (Scenario 1) in 10% of the observations. Also, 35% of the time, VALE price closed between -9.0% and +0.7% for an average value of $0.89. And finally, VALE increased by +0.7% (or more), 55% of the time. Therefore, to calculate an estimated value we perform the following: (10% X $0.00) + (35% X $0.89) + (55% X $1.50). Which comes out to $1.14.

In other words, if we applied the spread characteristics (same number of days to expiration, strikes with the same distance from stock price) historically, the average end value for this bull call spread at expiration would be $1.14.

Key Takeaway

The VALE bull call spread is a great way to play a bullish outlook on the underlying stock, with limited risk. Based on VALE historical stock behavior, the strategy has a 4.2% theoretical edge.

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