A Historical Analysis of MSFT Option Straddles for Strategic Traders

30 June 2023, 12:29 PM

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MSFT Option Straddle Performance: Analyzing Historical Trends

As an options trader or investor, understanding the historical performance of option strategies can provide valuable insights for making informed decisions. Today, we will explore a powerful tool that tracks the performance of at-the-money (ATM) option straddles throughout the days of the week. By examining the data of Microsoft (MSFT) over the past 12 weeks, we can uncover intriguing trends regarding the pricing and profitability of option straddles during specific periods.

Understanding the Option Straddle:

Before diving into the analysis, let's briefly recap what an option straddle is. An option straddle involves buying both a call option and a put option with the same strike price and expiration date. The strategy profits from significant price movements in either direction, regardless of whether the market goes up or down. By analyzing the performance of option straddles throughout the week, we can gain insights into potential patterns and identify advantageous trading periods.

Analyzing the Data:

Using MarketChameleon's tracking tool, we examined the performance of MSFT option straddles during different days of the week over the past 12 weeks. The data revealed some interesting findings:

MSFT At-the-Money Straddle Performance History

 

Monday to Tuesday Performance:

  • The option straddle from Monday 10 am to Tuesday close tended to lose value approximately 70% of the time.
  • The average return of holding the ATM straddle during this period was -10%, with a median return of -14%.
  • During this period, the short side of the straddle performed better.

Wednesday to Thursday Performance:

  • The best period to hold the option straddle in MSFT was from Wednesday to Thursday.
  • The option straddle gained value around 58% of the time, with an average gain of 26% and a median return of 27%.
  • This period displayed a more consistent positive performance compared to other days of the week.

Insights and Implications:

Based on the analysis, it is clear that the performance of MSFT option straddles varies significantly throughout the week. These findings provide several insights and potential implications for traders:

  1. The data suggests that initiating an option straddle on Monday could be riskier, as the straddle tended to lose value more often during this period. On the other hand, entering a straddle on Wednesday and exiting on Thursday provided a higher probability of positive returns.

  2. Consider Other Factors: While historical data is valuable, it is essential to consider other factors such as market conditions, news events, and volatility levels when making trading decisions. These additional factors can influence the performance of option straddles and should be taken into account.

Conclusion:

By utilizing MarketChameleon's historical tracking tool, we uncovered valuable insights into the performance of MSFT option straddles throughout the days of the week. The data highlighted the tendency for option straddles to lose value more often from Monday to Tuesday, while Wednesdays to Thursdays proved to be the most favorable period for holding option straddles in MSFT. Armed with this knowledge, traders can make more informed decisions regarding their option straddle strategies.

Remember, historical performance is not indicative of future results, and it is always important to conduct thorough analysis and consider other market factors before executing any trading strategy