AXP Bullish Call Spread at $3.75 Appears to be a Good Buy

19 April 2024, 11:22 AM

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By Dmitry Pargamanik

How this AXP Bull Call Spread Works

The bottom of the AXP trade card shows us that we would buy one call and sell another with the same 26-Apr-24 expiration (this is a bull call spread as indicated on the top of the card).

Buy: 26-Apr-24 220 CALL

Sell: 26-Apr-24 225 CALL

Reasons to Like This Trade

  • You can buy this spread for $3.75 when theoretically it’s worth $3.96. Simply put, the market is implying a theoretical edge of 5.7%.
  • Your maximum gain is $1.25, which means you can make an astounding 33.3% return on your investment in 6 trading days! (That's if the stock closes at 225 or above. $1.25 / $3.75 = 33.3%) At the time of this alert, the stock was trading at 227.15.
  • The stock only needs to close at, or above, 225.00 after 6 trading days for you to realize this maximum return. Since the stock is already above your ideal price of 225.00, you have a cushion in the strategy. The stock can decline by -1.5% and you'll still break even. If the stock stays here or goes higher you will make your max gain.
  • 7 out of 7 indicators are pointing to a bullish sentiment in the stock, which is enough to believe there is a decent chance the stock price could hit its mark of 225.00. Look, nobody knows for sure if the stock is going to go up or down, but, if you had to handicap the stock price, these metrics are indicating that AXP is really riding the momentum of bullish signals.
    Metric Signal Bull or Bear
    Relative Performance 1-yr Outperform Bullish AXP Bullish Relative Performance 1 year
    Relative Performance 3-Mon Outperform Bullish AXP Bullish Relative Performance 3 Month
    Relative Performance 2-Wk Outperform Bullish AXP Bullish Relative Performance 2 Week
    Seasonality Strong Bullish AXP Bullish Seasonality
    Technical Uptrend Bullish AXP Bullish Technical Indicator
    Historical Price Action 60% Uptrend Bullish AXP Bullish Historical Price Action
    Option Order Flow Sentiment Positive Net Option Delta Bullish AXP Bullish Option Order Flow Sentiment

Conclusion

This trade in AXP looks like a good opportunity because:

  1. 7 out of 7 bullish indicators support positive momentum
  2. 33.3% potential return on your investment
  3. Theoretical edge of 5.7%
  4. The stock price is already at the price point for you to make your max gain and can even go down by -1.5% and you'll still break even!

Don't Let an Opportunity Pass You By!


How to Find More AXP Bull Call Spread Strategies

How you can find bull call spread trade ideas for other stocks


And if you want to find more bull call spreads for other stocks, go to the bull call spread screener


Relative Performance

AXP has outperformed the market in the last year with a price return of +39.4% while the SPY ETF gained +21.9%. AXP has also outperformed the stock market ETF in the last 3 month and 2 week periods returning +26.5% and +3.2%, respectively, while the SPY returned +4.9% and -2.9%, respectively.

Learn about a stocks relative strength


Seasonality: Strong

The strategy involves holding the position from Apr 19 to Apr 26 expiration. Historically, this has been a strong seasonal period. In the past 12 years, AXP shares have increased 67% of the time between Apr 19 to Apr 26, while averaging a return of +0.4%. Learn how to look up stock seasonality.

Technical: Uptrend

The stock price and moving averages are all crossing each other in a positive trend.

Historical Price Action: 60% Uptrend

In the last 4 years, there were 91 historical samples of AXP stock price movements over the same time period as this option spread. The stock moved up 60% of the time for an average return of +3.1%.

How to generate statistics on a stocks historical price return distribution

Option Order Flow Sentiment: Positive Net Option Delta

At the time of this AXP trade idea, bullish option order flow exceeded bearish option order flow. The net option delta volume was 70 K.

Learn more about option delta volume.

Find out the latest sentiment from the options market for AXP

Videos you might like

How to Screen for the Best Bull Call Spread


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Marketchameleon is a comprehensive financial research and analysis website specializing in stock and options markets. We leverage extensive data, models, and analytics to provide valuable insights into these markets. Our primary goal is to assist traders in identifying potential market developments and assessing potential risks and rewards.



NOTE: Stock and option trading involves risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Examples contained within this report are simulated and may have limitations. Average returns and occurrences are calculated from snapshots of market mid-point prices and were not actually executed, so they do not reflect actual trades, fees, or execution costs. This report is for informational purposes only, and is not intended to be a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Neither Market Chameleon nor any other party makes warranties regarding results from its usage. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Please consult a financial advisor before executing any trades. You can read more about option risks and characteristics at theocc.com.


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