ASML Overpriced Bear Call Spread has 3% Upside Cushion


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This ASML Debit Call Spread Can Net 32% in 20 Days

Bullish play with a target stock price of $695 or above

Strategy has +32% upside potential and 74% overvalued


Expiration29-Nov-24
Buy695 Call
Sell690 Call
Debit:$3.80


Asml Holding N.V. - New York Registry Shares has fallen by -1.4% today to $674.08. Based on moving averages, ASML has been in a downtrend since October 14, but this spread would be best positioned to take advantage of a rebound. Based on historical stock price behavior, this spread for ASML has a theoretical 87% success rate.

Option Profit Calculator for ASML Call Spread at 29-Nov-24 Expiration

If ASML stock price at expiration is at or above $695.00, this spread has a 32% upside potential

The optimal stock price for this option strategy is to close at or above $695.00 on the expiration date, November 29, 2024. In that scenario, both calls would be in-the-money, so the spread would be worth the maximum value of 5.00. That would equate to the potential upside of +32% for this call spread with 20 days left to expiration.

The maximum gain will be realized if the stock price is at or above 695.00. The maximum gain is $1.20

The breakeven point is at 693.80, which is 3.3% above the current spot price.

The maximum loss will occur when the stock price is at or below 690. The max loss is $3.80.

ASML Spread Current Market Price vs. Historical Average

ASML Call Spread is trading at a 74% premium to historical average.

Using historical data to measure how a similar spread in ASML was priced in the market, the 4-year average value was 2.19, with a high mark of 3.18 and a low of 1.49.

Currently, this vertical call spread is bid at 5.20 and offered at 3.80. The midpoint of the spread is 4.50.

If we use 2.19 as our historical fair value benchmark, the current market ask price is at a 74% premium, while the current market midpoint represents a 106% premium.

Current PriceHistorical Values of Similar Spreads
BidAskMidpointAverageHighLow
5.203.804.502.193.181.49
Market Chameleon captures daily records of market data to calculate historical benchmarks and generate estimated values.

Takeaway

The ASML call spread we've identified here can be a good way to play a bullish outlook because the option strategy has a +32% upside potential, is 74% overpriced relative to historical measures, and will benefit from a stock price at or above $695.

See how Market Chameleon can help you make smarter and more efficient trades!



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