XOM Bullish Calendar Call Spread is Inexpensive at 98 Cents


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This XOM Calendar Call Spread Can Net 341%

Bullish play with a target stock price of $135

Strategy has +341% upside potential and 18% undervalued


Strategy: XOM Calendar Call Spread
Sell 15-Nov-24 135 Call1.21
Buy 20-Dec-24 135 Call2.19
Debit:$0.98


Exxon Mobil has increased by +1.6% today to $124.59. Today's price action is showing strength in both the stock and the overall market. Setting up this calendar spread with strikes at $135 gives you a bullish bias to tap into XOM stock's strength.

Option Profit Calculator Results for XOM Calendar Spread at 15-Nov-24 Expiration

In this scenario, the optimal stock price for the option strategy would be $135.00 on the date of the first expiration, November 15, 2024. This is equal to the strike price of the options in the spread. Since both XOM and the market are showing upward pressure, and the strikes are above the current stock price of $124.43, the spread is taking advantage of this bullish momentum. If the stock price is $135.00 at expiration, we can benefit from the 15-Nov-24 call, which we sold, expiring worthless, and the option that we are long, the 20-Dec-24 call, will still have time premium built in.

Since we do now know what the exact implied volatility will be on November 15, we can use our historical data to make an educated estimate to help us calculate the value of the 20-Dec-24 option. Applying the median historical implied volatility of 26.8 from similar options, the theoretical value of the call is 4.32 at the date of the 15-Nov-24 expiration. Using the above assumptions gives us a potential upside of +341% for this calendar spread.

XOM Calendar Spread Value vs. Market Price

According to Market Chameleon estimated value, XOM Calendar Spread is trading at a 18% discount to historical benchmark.

If we use historical data to measure how similar spreads in XOM were priced in the market, the 4-year average price was 1.20, with a high mark of 1.48 and a low of 0.85.

Currently, the calendar call spread is bid at 0.83 and offered at 0.98. The midpoint of the spread is 0.90.

If we use 1.20 as our historical fair value benchmark, the current market ask price is at a 18% discount, while the current market midpoint represents a 24% discount.

Current PriceHistorical Values of Similar Spreads
BidAskMidpointAverageHighLow
0.830.980.901.201.480.85
Market Chameleon captures daily records of market data to calculate historical benchmarks and generate estimated values.

Takeaway

The XOM calendar call spread we've identified here can be a good way to play a bullish outlook because the option strategy has a +341% upside potential, is 18% underpriced relative to historical measures, and will benefit from the stock price moving higher to $135.

See how Market Chameleon can help you make smarter and more efficient trades!



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NOTE: Stock and option trading involves risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Examples contained within this report are simulated And may have limitations. Average returns and occurrences are calculated from snapshots of market mid-point prices And were Not actually executed, so they do not reflect actual trades, fees, or execution costs. This report is for informational purposes only, and is not intended to be a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Neither Market Chameleon nor any other party makes warranties regarding results from its usage. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Please consult a financial advisor before executing any trades. You can read more about option risks and characteristics at theocc.com.


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