Why Selling This Iron Condor Spread in TSLA Makes Sense for a $14.6 Credit


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This TSLA Iron Condor Could Turn 64% Profit in 8 Days

Outlook is neutral, with stock confined to a band of ±7%

Strategy has +64% ROI potential and 30% overvalued


Expiration03-Jan-25
Buy365 Put
Sell402.5 Put
Sell462.5 Call
Buy500 Call
Credit:$14.60


Tesla stock price has dropped -1.8% today to $428.32. Over the last two weeks, the stock has traded between $370.80 and $488.54. Implied volatility for TSLA is down -1.9% today, indicating the market is potentially forecasting lower volatility in the weeks ahead. Based on historical stock price behavior, this spread for TSLA has a theoretical 71% success rate.

Option Profit Calculator for TSLA Iron Condor at 03-Jan-25 Expiration

If TSLA stock price at expiration is between $402.50 and $462.50, this spread has a 64% upside potential

As you can see in the chart above, the most profitable outcome is for TSLA stock price to close between $402.50 and $462.50 at the January 3, 2025 expiration. Within that price range, all of the options will expire worthless, and you'd keep the original $14.60 credit you received at the time of the trade.

The maximum gain will be realized if the stock price is between $402.50 and $462.50. The maximum gain is $14.60

The maximum loss would occur if the stock price at expiration is below $365.00 or above $500.00. The maximum loss is $22.90

TSLA Spread Current Market Price vs. Historical Average

TSLA Iron Condor is trading at a 30% premium to historical average.

Using historical data to measure how a similar spread in TSLA was priced in the market, the 4-year average value was 11.27, with a high mark of 19.48 and a low of 5.33.

Currently, this iron condor is bid at 14.60 and offered at 15.40. The midpoint of the spread is 15.00.

If we use 11.27 as our historical fair value benchmark, the current market bid price is at a 30% premium, while the current market midpoint represents a 33% premium.

Current PriceHistorical Values of Similar Iron Condors
BidAskMidpointAverageHighLow
14.6015.4015.0011.2719.485.33
Market Chameleon captures daily records of market data to calculate historical benchmarks and generate estimated values.

See how Market Chameleon can help you make smarter and more efficient trades!



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NOTE: Stock and option trading involves risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Examples contained within this report are simulated And may have limitations. Average returns and occurrences are calculated from snapshots of market mid-point prices And were Not actually executed, so they do not reflect actual trades, fees, or execution costs. This report is for informational purposes only, and is not intended to be a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Neither Market Chameleon nor any other party makes warranties regarding results from its usage. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Please consult a financial advisor before executing any trades. You can read more about option risks and characteristics at theocc.com.


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