If UNH Stays Range-Bound Between ±4% This Strategy Will Yield 40%


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This UNH Iron Condor Aims for 40% ROI in 12 Days

Outlook is neutral, with stock confined to a channel of ±4%

Strategy has +40% ROI potential and 9% overvalued


Expiration10-Jan-25
Buy465 Put
Sell485 Put
Sell525 Call
Buy545 Call
Credit:$5.72


Unitedhealth Group Common (De) stock price has gained +1.2% today to $505.92. Over the last two weeks, the stock has traded between $475.82 and $567.75. Implied volatility for UNH is down -3.3% today, indicating the market is potentially forecasting lower volatility in the weeks ahead. Based on historical stock price behavior, this spread for UNH has a theoretical 82% success rate.

Option Profit Calculator for UNH Iron Condor at 10-Jan-25 Expiration

If UNH stock price at expiration is between $485.00 and $525.00, this spread has a 40% upside potential

As you can see in the chart above, the optimal outcome is for UNH stock price to close between $485.00 and $525.00 at the January 10, 2025 expiration. Within that price range, all of the options will expire worthless, and you'd keep the original $5.72 credit you received at the time of the trade.

The maximum gain will be realized if the stock price is between $485.00 and $525.00. The maximum gain is $5.72

The maximum loss would occur if the stock price at expiration is below $465.00 or above $545.00. The maximum loss is $14.28

UNH Spread Current Market Price vs. Historical Average

UNH Iron Condor is trading at a 9% premium to historical average.

Using historical data to measure how a similar spread in UNH was priced in the market, the 4-year average value was 5.25, with a high mark of 9.39 and a low of 2.72.

Currently, this iron condor is bid at 5.72 and offered at 7.55. The midpoint of the spread is 6.63.

If we use 5.25 as our historical fair value benchmark, the current market bid price is at a 9% premium, while the current market midpoint represents a 26% premium.

Current PriceHistorical Values of Similar Iron Condors
BidAskMidpointAverageHighLow
5.727.556.635.259.392.72
Market Chameleon captures daily records of market data to calculate historical benchmarks and generate estimated values.

See how Market Chameleon can help you make smarter and more efficient trades!



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