GLD Credit Call Spread is Overpriced at $0.37; Theoretical Value $0.32


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This GLD Credit Call Spread Could Pay 17% Return in 7 Days

Bearish play with a target stock price of $225 or below

Strategy has +17% upside potential and 15% overvalued


Expiration26-Apr-24
Buy227.5 Call
Sell225 Call
Credit:$0.37


SPDR Gold Shares stock price has dropped -1.0% today to $219.11. Based on moving averages, GLD has been in a uptrend since March 6, but the current price is still in an ideal range for this spread. Based on historical stock price behavior, this spread for GLD has a theoretical 92% success rate.

Option Profit Calculator for GLD Call Spread at 26-Apr-24 Expiration

If GLD stock price at expiration is at or below $225.00, this spread has a 17% upside potential

The optimal stock price for this option strategy is to close at or below $225.00 on the expiration date, April 26, 2024. In that scenario, both calls would expire worthless, allowing you to keep the entire $0.37 you received when selling the spread. That corresponds to a potential +17% return on the amount at risk with 7 days left until expiration.

The maximum gain will be realized if the stock price is at or below 225.00. The maximum gain is $0.37

The breakeven point is at 225.37, which is 2.7% above the current spot price.

The maximum loss will occur when the stock price is at or above 227.5. The max loss is $2.13.

GLD Spread Current Market Price vs. Historical Average

GLD Call Spread is trading at a 15% premium to historical average.

Using historical data to measure how a similar spread in GLD was priced in the market, the 4-year average value was 0.32, with a high mark of 0.51 and a low of 0.19.

Currently, this vertical call spread is bid at 0.37 and offered at 0.42. The midpoint of the spread is 0.39.

If we use 0.32 as our historical fair value benchmark, the current market bid price is at a 15% premium, while the current market midpoint represents a 23% premium.

Current PriceHistorical Values of Similar Spreads
BidAskMidpointAverageHighLow
0.370.420.390.320.510.19
Market Chameleon captures daily records of market data to calculate historical benchmarks and generate estimated values.

Takeaway

The GLD call spread we've identified here can be a good way to play a bearish outlook because the option strategy has a +17% upside potential, is 15% overpriced relative to historical measures, and will benefit from a stock price at or below $225.

See how Market Chameleon can help you make smarter and more efficient trades!



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NOTE: Stock and option trading involves risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Examples contained within this report are simulated And may have limitations. Average returns and occurrences are calculated from snapshots of market mid-point prices And were Not actually executed, so they do not reflect actual trades, fees, or execution costs. This report is for informational purposes only, and is not intended to be a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Neither Market Chameleon nor any other party makes warranties regarding results from its usage. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Please consult a financial advisor before executing any trades. You can read more about option risks and characteristics at theocc.com.


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