Largest Positive Opening Gaps for ARCC

How does ARCC usually behave after a large gap-up move?

Using the 12 largest gap-up moves over the last 3 years in ARCC stock, the average move was +3.5% with the single largest opening gap of +7.5% occurring on 13-Dec-2022. Following the opening, ARCC tended to drift lower to the closing price 92% of the time for an average loss of -2.8%. The following day, ARCC stock price averaged +0.4% gains, with up moves more frequent than down moves. The stock was up 58% of the time in that period one day after these significant gaps. Earnings dates have been excluded from this analysis.

Catalysts

2 of ARCC's 12 largest moves corresponded with a large gap up in the overall market.

Open-to-High and Open-to-Low

The largest percentage gain from the open to the high of the day was +1.0% on 14-Jun-2022, while the biggest drop from the open to the low was -3.4% on 13-Jun-2022. On average, the ARCC stock price gain from the opening price to the highest point of the day was +0.5%, and the average drop to the lowest point was -1.5%.

Day Drift Open-to-Close

The best performance in ARCC stock price from opening price to closing price (referred to as the "drift" for the day) was on 14-Jun-2022 for a +0.4% gain after the stock gapped up +2.8% at the open. The worst worst return from the opening price to the closing price was on 13-Jun-2022 when the stock lost -7.7% after the stock gapped up +2.9%. Overall in the 12 available observations, the stock drifted lower 92% of the time for an average loss of -2.8%.