TLT Bear Put Spread is Attractively Priced at $1.58; Theoretical Value $1.63

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This TLT Debit Put Spread Aims for 153% ROI in 21 Days

Bearish play with a target stock price of $89.50 or below

Strategy has +153% upside potential and 3% undervalued

Buy93.5 Put
Sell89.5 Put

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF has seen its price gain +0.2% today to $92.24. Based on moving averages, TLT has been in a downtrend recently, so this spread would be a great way to leverage a bearish outlook. Based on historical stock price behavior, this spread for TLT has a theoretical 71% success rate.

Option Profit Calculator for TLT Put Spread at 03-May-24 Expiration

If TLT stock price at expiration is at or below $89.50, this spread has a 153% upside potential

The optimal stock price for this option strategy is to close at or below $89.50 on the expiration date, May 3, 2024. In that scenario, both puts would be in-the-money, so the spread would be worth the maximum value of 4.00. That would equate to the potential upside of +153% for this put spread with 21 days left to expiration.

The maximum gain will be realized if the stock price is at or below 89.50. The maximum gain is $2.42

The breakeven point is at 91.92, which is 0.4% below the current spot price.

The maximum loss will occur when the stock price is at or above 93.5. The max loss is $1.58.

TLT Spread Current Market Price vs. Historical Average

TLT Put Spread is trading at a 3% discount to historical average.

Using historical data to measure how a similar spread in TLT was priced in the market, the 4-year average value was 1.63, with a high mark of 1.78 and a low of 1.51.

Currently, this vertical put spread is bid at 1.54 and offered at 1.58. The midpoint of the spread is 1.56.

If we use 1.63 as our historical fair value benchmark, the current market ask price is at a 3% discount, while the current market midpoint represents a 4% discount.

Current PriceHistorical Values of Similar Spreads
Market Chameleon captures daily records of market data to calculate historical benchmarks and generate estimated values.


The TLT put spread we've identified here can be a good way to play a bearish outlook because the option strategy has a +153% upside potential, is 3% underpriced relative to historical measures, and will benefit from a stock price at or below $89.50.

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NOTE: Stock and option trading involves risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Examples contained within this report are simulated And may have limitations. Average returns and occurrences are calculated from snapshots of market mid-point prices And were Not actually executed, so they do not reflect actual trades, fees, or execution costs. This report is for informational purposes only, and is not intended to be a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Neither Market Chameleon nor any other party makes warranties regarding results from its usage. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Please consult a financial advisor before executing any trades. You can read more about option risks and characteristics at

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